Arthur Hayes Flags Fed’s RMP as the Spark for a $200K Bitcoin Run by March

Forget halving cycles and ETF flows—Arthur Hayes is fixated on one lever: the Federal Reserve’s “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP). In his latest note, the BitMEX co-founder argues that the market will increasingly treat RMP as quantitative easing, priming Bitcoin for a fast, narrative-driven repricing to $200,000 by March, followed by a retrace that holds well above $124,000.

Here’s how he sequences it: - Near-term: BTC chops between $80,000 and $100,000 into year-end as traders digest policy signals. - Early new year: as investors equate RMP with QE, Bitcoin “retakes” $124,000 and presses toward $200,000. - Post-peak reset: by March, expectations around RMP crest, and BTC cools into a higher-low above $124,000.

The numbers are bold. From roughly $88,000—around 30% below its $126,080 all-time high—Bitcoin would need a 127% rally to tag $200,000 in that window. Hayes isn’t deterred. He’s long argued that balance-sheet expansion lifts scarce assets—gold, mining equities, and Bitcoin—faster than fiat supply growth. He now extends that lens to RMP, a new Fed operating tool surfaced at the December 10 FOMC meeting.

The crux isn’t mechanical nuance—it’s how markets code the signal. If participants see RMP as a cousin to QE, risk gets a liquidity premium. That perception alone often reprices forward outcomes: higher beta, more reflexivity, faster trend extension. Hayes is effectively trading the psychology of “money printer go brrr,” and he names New York Fed President John Williams—vice chair of the FOMC—as central to the pace and messaging that could sustain that belief.

This framework also explains his tactical humility. Earlier this year he floated a $250,000-by-year-end scenario on money-printing dynamics; it didn’t materialize. He now expects an $80,000-$100,000 consolidation into the close, which sets the springboard for a cleaner breakout when policy narratives firm. In other words, positioning matters: ranges reset leverage and sentiment so a liquidity story can punch through resistance around $124,000 without immediately exhausting.

One side bet: Hayes likes Ethena’s ENA as a “TradFi vs. crypto USD rates” play—essentially a wager on how crypto-native yield instruments track or diverge from legacy rate curves if liquidity loosens. It’s consistent with his broader view: when the cost of dollars feels lighter, structures built on dollar liquidity tend to reprice.

There is a countercurrent. On the same day as Hayes’ call, CryptoQuant suggested Bitcoin has already slipped into a bear market based on non-price indicators that have deteriorated since early October. If that read persists, the market may demand more than a catchy acronym to reverse the drift. The tension between a bearish on-chain/flow setup and a bullish liquidity narrative is exactly where volatility thrives.

What to watch if you trade Hayes’ roadmap: - Language from the FOMC and the New York Fed that blurs the line between reserve management and outright accommodation. - Balance-sheet indicators that hint at reserve adds and how quickly they transmit into risk appetite. - BTC behavior around $100,000-$124,000; acceptance above prior highs is the real test of the RMP-as-QE narrative.

Hayes’ call isn’t simply “number go up.” It’s a bet that policy semantics can become price reality when liquidity, belief, and positioning line up. If markets buy RMP as QE, Bitcoin has the reflexive fuel to sprint. If they don’t, the range does its job and the thesis waits for a clearer signal.