Bernstein Says Bitcoin May Have Found a Floor as ‘Strategy’ Taps 11.5% Preferreds to Keep Accumulating

The cleanest tell that a crypto selloff is maturing isn’t sentiment—it’s who can still buy size. Bernstein’s latest note argues Bitcoin has likely carved out a bottom and points to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) as exhibit A: the firm kept acquiring into the drawdown by leaning on a new funding rail most peers don’t have.

Here’s the setup. After peaking near $126,000 in October, Bitcoin slid to $63,000 last month before recovering toward $70,000. Bernstein believes the downside impulse looks exhausted and still forecasts $150,000 by year-end—a move that would be roughly 114% from current levels. They also keep a constructive stance on Strategy’s equity with a stated price target of $440 in the update, while elsewhere reiterating an “Outperform” rating and a $450 target.

The fulcrum is capital structure—specifically, STRC, Strategy’s dividend-paying preferred share that currently yields 11.5% annually. Instead of repeatedly issuing common stock at weak prices, Strategy used STRC to fund Bitcoin purchases without pressuring its primary float. That matters in a market where liquidity thins quickly: access to non-dilutive, recurring capital lets a buyer behave like a patient market-maker when others are de-risking.

Results show up in the ledger. Year-to-date, Strategy has added about 86,000 BTC, lifting its total holdings to 762,099 BTC—valued near $53.2 billion on Tuesday—despite Bitcoin being down roughly 20% since the start of 2026. The firm is on pace for its second-largest quarterly haul since launching its accumulation program in 2020. For a company many expected could be forced to sell into weakness, that’s a powerful credibility signal to both creditors and counterparties.

This approach does more than pad balances. It nudges market psychology. When a visible corporate buyer can keep absorbing coins through a drawdown, miners, funds, and treasuries often recalibrate their own sell discipline. That can harden bids and compress realized volatility at the margin. It also dovetails with Bernstein’s broader thesis: the market’s capital base is getting sturdier. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted investors who appear more mandate-driven and less momentum-chasing, which tends to extend holding periods and soften the four-year “halving cycle” reflex many traders still map onto.

There are trade-offs worth flagging. At 11.5%, STRC isn’t cheap capital if BTC stalls; servicing that yield requires confidence in long-term appreciation and disciplined treasury ops. Packaging a double-digit coupon as “fit for consumers,” as Michael Saylor described, invites scrutiny around suitability and risk disclosure, particularly if retail allocators treat the instrument like high-yield cash rather than equity-like exposure with Bitcoin beta embedded. Still, the instrument’s appearance on peer balance sheets suggests others see value in ring-fencing dilution while maintaining acquisition cadence.

Equity markets remain unconvinced in the short run. Strategy’s stock recently traded near $136, down about 58% over six months, even as the company kept buying. That disconnect often reflects path-dependence—equity holders absorb funding costs and execution risk in real time—while the underlying thesis plays out over longer cycles. Prediction markets are equally undecided: users on Myriad currently assign roughly 50/50 odds that BTC’s next big move is to $84,000 rather than $55,000.

Put together, the signal is resilience via design. A maturing market structure—ETFs channeling steadier inflows and a corporate buyer with an alternative funding stack—can change how drawdowns resolve. If that dynamic persists, Bernstein’s “bottoming” call has a firmer fundamental spine than a chart pattern. It doesn’t remove tail risk, but it does raise the bar for forced sellers and lowers the threshold for reflexive recoveries.