Bitcoin at $1.42M by 2035? CF Benchmarks’ model hinges on BTC seizing one-third of gold

The headline number isn’t the story—the market share is. A new framework from CF Benchmarks, led by analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk at the Kraken-owned index provider, projects Bitcoin at $1.42 million per coin by 2035 as its base case. What drives that outcome isn’t a fanciful multiple; it’s an explicit claim that BTC captures roughly 33% of gold’s market capitalization, delivering an expected annualized return of 30.1% over the period. Push the same logic further and the bull case stretches to $2.95 million if Bitcoin becomes the preeminent store of value through broad institutional and even sovereign uptake. Pull it back to a more conservative trajectory—about 16% of gold—and the bear case sits at $637,000.

That gold-share assumption is the fulcrum. If large allocators treat BTC like a portfolio ballast against monetary debasement, flows can become self-reinforcing: more regulated access, deeper derivatives, and better custody compress realized volatility and lower correlations to traditional assets—exactly what long-horizon allocators seek. CF Benchmarks’ report leans on that dynamic, arguing that as institutions scale in, volatility should continue to moderate and BTC’s sensitivity to debasement keeps correlations low, enhancing diversification. Add clearer rules, broader acceptance, and thicker liquidity, and investability improves.

Here’s the critical test: policy and plumbing. Exchange-traded products provide the wrapper, but risk-based capital treatment, accounting clarity, and mandate design determine whether pensions, insurers, and sovereigns can own meaningful size. If those hurdles fall, one-third of gold is not far-fetched. If they persist, BTC likely tracks closer to the bear path. The psychology matters too. The “digital gold” narrative is sticky when inflation anxiety is elevated; it fades when yields are compelling and fiscal risk recedes. Meanwhile, the rise of stablecoins—useful for payments and settlement—has already nudged some forecasts down because they absorb transactional demand inside crypto without competing as a debasement hedge. That’s why Cathie Wood now targets $1.2 million by 2030, trimmed from $1.5 million, even as her firm’s earlier “Big Ideas” work mapped a route to $2.4 million by 2030.

On the extreme end, Michael Saylor sees a path to $1 million within four to eight years and, on a multi-decade arc, envisions compounding toward $20 million if ~30% annual appreciation persists for twenty years. Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong has also floated multi-million dollar Bitcoin as a plausible long-run outcome. Different timelines, same thesis: capital structure, regulation, and distribution drive the adoption curve.

Technologically, Bitcoin doesn’t need throughput breakthroughs to fulfill a store-of-value role, but it does need durable security economics and predictable policy treatment. Energy scrutiny, jurisdictional bans, and sovereignty questions around state-level ownership could slow or accelerate the glidepath depending on how they resolve. None of that breaks the model; it just shifts the probability mass between base, bull, and bear.

Context from today’s tape keeps the ambition in check. Bitcoin trades around $87,133, off more than 3% over the past week and roughly 31% below its October all-time high of $126,080. A move to $1 million requires a gain north of 1,000%; the $1.42 million base case implies an advance of more than 1,500%. The climb is steep, but the framework is useful: decide how much share of gold BTC can plausibly earn, then back into the expected return. If you believe the market’s architecture will welcome large, rules-bound capital, the base case starts to look less like a moonshot and more like an adoption schedule.