Bitcoin Near $64K: Macro Shock Meets Leverage, Not a Broken Cycle

Bitcoin’s slide to $63,822 has the hallmarks of a macro jolt transmitted through a leveraged market rather than a failed regime. The move extended weekly losses to about 6.4% (CoinGecko) and leaves the asset roughly 50% under its $126,080 all-time high set about five months ago. Digital asset investment products have now seen five consecutive weeks of outflows, with spot ETF redemptions totaling roughly $4 billion and volumes at their weakest since July 2025.

What changed wasn’t Bitcoin’s code or its scarcity. It was the backdrop. A broad tariff increase to 15% announced by President Trump reset risk premia across assets. Despite the “digital gold” narrative, Bitcoin still trades with risk-beta characteristics; when policy raises uncertainty, capital often migrates to traditional havens first. That shift has been reinforced by rates: CME FedWatch shows the probability of no rate cut sitting near 96%, with sticky inflation anchoring a higher-for-longer stance. Add in worries around a potential U.S. government shutdown, and you have an environment where cash flows get discounted harder and risk appetite cools.

The fulcrum, though, is leverage. Exposure built up since the October 2025 peak created a reflexive setup: negative policy shocks pressure prices, which trigger liquidations and forced de-risking, which then feeds further downside. Analysts note that funding activity and risk positioning raised fragility into the pullback. That fragility is now colliding with ETF outflows and thinning liquidity—conditions that rarely offer gentle landings.

Microstructure tells a similar story. Persistent net redemptions from spot ETFs for five weeks, about $4 billion in total, and the lowest trading volumes since July 2025 indicate that the marginal bid has stepped back. In that vacuum, miners may become price takers rather than price setters. With rewards slipping toward production cost, some operators could be nudged to sell inventory to fund electricity and maintenance. That behavior doesn’t break the thesis; it compresses margins and extends the digestion phase until either price recovers or hash economics improve.

Cycle watchers haven’t vanished; they’ve just lowered their voices. If the four-year cadence holds, 2025 functions as the peak year, while 2026 resembles a correction and base-building interval ahead of renewed accumulation into 2027–2028. On that view, a 50% drawdown is harsh but not abnormal. One researcher expects stabilization to form in the mid-$60,000s, leaning on historical patterns where Bitcoin often revisits realized price bands to find support before a measured recovery. Another flags that $55,000—the realized price marker many track—is not out of reach in the current uncertainty. From a portfolio construction lens, the difference between sub-$60,000 and current levels is less about precision and more about pacing entries in a choppy tape.

The single variable worth concentrating on now is the transmission mechanism from macro policy to crypto leverage. Tariffs and rate expectations repriced risk broadly, but it was the accumulated leverage and softening spot demand that amplified the move in Bitcoin. When the funding mix shifts away from speculative leverage toward organic spot demand—particularly via balanced ETF flows and healthier volumes—the same macro inputs tend to inflict less damage. Until then, traders are likely to see two-way volatility dominate.

None of this suggests a structural failure. Scarcity, institutionalization, and the maturation of market rails haven’t reversed. What has changed, at least for now, is the cost of capital, the direction of policy risk, and the tolerance for leverage. If those ease—via clearer rate paths, calmer policy headlines, or resumed ETF inflows—the path to rebuilding a durable base improves. If they don’t, realized-price tests around $55,000 remain plausible before the next leg of accumulation takes hold.