Bitcoin’s Pop to $69K Looks Fragile as Trend Signals Stay Bearish

Bitcoin’s recovery to the high-$60Ks is getting plenty of attention, but the market is still trading inside a bearish regime. When trend strength is this elevated, fast rallies often function as exit liquidity rather than trend reversals.

Here’s the tell: the daily Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 51.3—an unusually strong reading that points to momentum persistence. ADX doesn’t care about direction; it measures conviction. Above 50, sellers tend to keep initiative until structure breaks. Pair that with a daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 35.0—well below a neutral 50—and a 50-day EMA sitting beneath the 200-day EMA, and you have a setup where bounces struggle to transition into higher highs and higher lows.

Price action captured the tension cleanly. Bitcoin climbed from $68,248 to an intraday high of $69,450 before hovering near $69,321, up 3.69% on the day. It’s a decent pop, but it hasn’t dented the broader structure. When the short-term EMA lives under the long-term EMA, the path of least resistance still leans lower. Until daily RSI reclaims 50 and price retakes key supply—think a series of green daily closes pushing toward and above $80,000—bulls are trading countertrend.

Behavioral signals echo the same caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is stuck at 8, barely above the all-time low of 5 registered on February 6. Extreme fear can precede tradable bounces, but with ADX this hot, capitulation can extend. Prediction markets agree: on Myriad, traders price a 55% chance that Bitcoin tags $55,000 before any recovery to $84,000. That skew says participants remain positioned for more stress.

Flows aren’t helping either. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs shed $410 million yesterday, a reminder that even structurally bullish vehicles can see redemptions when narratives wobble. Standard Chartered cut its headline target from $300,000 to the $100K area and flagged a potential slide to $50,000 first—an institutional nod to a tougher near-term regime. Meanwhile, the global crypto market cap bounced 4.3% to $2.36 trillion, but that’s modest against roughly $2 trillion erased in recent weeks.

What could flip the script? Macro prints and time-frame alignment. Today’s CPI, expected at 2.5% YoY, is a cleaner driver than usual. A hotter read likely sends Bitcoin back toward $60K as real yields firm and dollar liquidity tightens; a cooler print could buy bulls time to build structure. But in strong-trend environments, you often need either a cathartic washout—something bigger than the February 6 candle—or multiple high-volume green sessions to reassert control.

For traders, time-frame choice matters. The 4-hour chart is more forgiving: ADX sits at 20.6 (no clear trend), RSI is a neutral 53.6, and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “on,” signaling compression. That backdrop can reward mean-reversion tactics into the $70K-$72K zone. Just remember the boss is the daily: rallies inside a bearish trend tend to meet supply quickly.

My playbook in regimes like this is simple: - Respect ADX > 50 on the daily; treat bounces as tactical until RSI > 50 and EMAs improve. - Watch ETF flow inflections as early tells of demand returning. - Use 70K-72K as a probable supply band unless structure proves otherwise. - Plan for skewed tails: a probe toward $55K-$60K isn’t off the table if fear persists and CPI runs hot.

The bounce is welcome. The structure still isn’t. Until the daily trend cools and participation broadens, caution likely remains the rational trade.