Bitcoin Reclaims $71K as Bessent Weighs Iran Oil Waivers and a New SPR Draw

Bitcoin shook off early weakness and tagged an intraday high of $71,261 Friday before settling near $70,547—roughly flat on the day, per CoinGecko—after Washington signaled it could lean on energy-policy levers to calm crude. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration may waive some sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea and is considering another release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Volatility has been intense. On Thursday, BTC slipped below $70,000 as Brent crude spiked to $119 per barrel amid attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities and supply strains in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering over $500 million in crypto liquidations. Efforts to stabilize flows through the chokepoint continue, but analysts warn a prolonged disruption could push oil toward $200 per barrel—an outcome that would reverberate across risk assets.

The single variable that matters right now is policy optionality around oil. A partial sanctions waiver on cargoes en route plus an SPR draw would add marginal barrels quickly, cool front-month Brent, and soften inflation expectations. That relaxes the “higher-for-longer” rates impulse that has kept liquidity tight and beta assets heavy. In that path, BTC’s bid stabilizes not because crypto decouples, but because the macro regime shifts a notch away from energy-driven inflation risk and toward carry compression.

Flip the scenario and the logic cuts the other way. If Hormuz constraints persist and prices lurch higher, the market will price stickier inflation and a slower Fed pivot. Crypto has increasingly traded inside institutional risk buckets, so the correlation to energy and rates stays sticky. GSR’s Carlos Guzman has argued that pricier energy nudges the Fed to keep policy restrictive, a setup that typically weighs on digital assets since easier rates tend to pull capital toward risk.

Prediction markets are already shading that narrative. On Myriad, users assign a 63% probability that oil’s next leg is to $120 before $55. Bitcoin sentiment has cooled: bettors now give a 51% chance that the next notable move is to $84,000 rather than $55,000, down from 65% earlier this week. That subtle swing captures how sensitive crypto positioning is to the energy tape and policy headlines.

A quieter subplot: miners and energy-intensive participants feel these moves first. Elevated power costs compress margins and can force treasury sales, which amplifies market microstructure stress during spikes. If Bessent’s toolkit reduces near-term crude volatility, it indirectly steadies hash economics and dampens forced selling risk.

This is less about a single candle and more about whether policymakers can engineer a release valve for oil. Watch three signposts: formal guidance on Iranian cargo waivers, the size and cadence of any SPR deployment, and Brent’s front-end curve versus inflation breakevens. If those cool together, crypto’s risk premium can compress and BTC can sustain levels above $70K with healthier breadth. If they don’t, expect the market to keep treating Bitcoin as a high-beta expression of the energy-to-rates pipeline.