Bitcoin tops $72K as Trump’s two-week Iran truce reopens Hormuz; oil sinks 22% and shorts get squeezed

Markets traded the removal of a tail risk. With the Strait of Hormuz reopening under a two-week conditional ceasefire, energy anxiety bled out of assets and the crypto complex inhaled. Bitcoin extended Tuesday’s jump and tagged $72,379 early Wednesday before settling near $71,610, up roughly 3.5% in 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The move ripped through positioning: about $425 million in shorts were liquidated, with an additional $170 million in long wipeouts, per CoinGlass. Zcash, LayerZero, and Ethena printed double‑digit gains.

Risk appetite broadened. The S&P 500 climbed more than 3.6% to 6,838—closing in on its 7,043 record—while Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced in tandem. Energy went the other way. U.S. crude cratered more than 22%, sliding from over $117 to $91 per barrel as shippers prepared to resume flows.

The catalyst: in a Wednesday Truth Social post, President Donald Trump said that, following talks with Pakistani leadership, the U.S. would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks if Tehran agreed to the “complete, immediate, and safe” reopening of Hormuz. The arrangement permits Iran and Oman to levy transit fees earmarked for reconstruction. Critics revived a “TACO” jab—implying Trump tends to back down—citing his harsher rhetoric earlier in the week that “a whole civilization will die tonight” unless the strait reopened. The truce does not include Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.

Here’s the core dynamic worth focusing on: rapid compression of the geopolitical risk premium. When a chokepoint like Hormuz reopens, the market removes extreme scenarios first and asks policy questions later. That repricing lifts duration‑sensitive and liquidity‑seeking assets, which increasingly includes Bitcoin. ETF inflows have been a steady undercurrent; they often reassert when volatility moderates, even if broader sentiment remains risk‑aware. As one research head put it, many investors still assume “nothing ever happens” after the headline spikes, keeping exuberance in check and encouraging methodical averaging rather than capitulation at lows.

Still, this is fragile relief. Maksym Sakharov described the pause as breathing room that could widen crypto adoption—especially stablecoins—if shipping normalizes. Andri Fauzan Adziima cautioned that the ceasefire’s gaps and the optics of de‑escalation may erode perceived deterrence; the unresolved Lebanon theater underscores that point. In other words, the risk premium can snap back as quickly as it compressed.

Prediction markets reflect the pivot in expectations. On Myriad (owned by Dastan), the probability that Bitcoin’s next leg reaches $84,000 rose to 55% from 43% pre‑announcement. Traders also place an 88% chance that average daily ship transits through Hormuz exceed 15 before May, up from 65% a day earlier. If throughput data confirm reopening, relief rallies often gain a second wind.

Macro can still spoil the party. A hotter U.S. CPI print would delay rate‑cut timelines and tighten financial conditions just as energy eases—an unusual mix that can blunt crypto’s momentum. On the policy front, the FDIC advanced a proposal to implement GENIUS Act standards; with stablecoins moving toward 1:1 cash backing, there’s less excuse to avoid them, which could accelerate stablecoin‑based settlement as regional trade stabilizes around Hormuz.

My read: today looked like a textbook risk‑premium squeeze—headline relief, oil down, shorts torched, ETFs ready to nibble. Staying power likely depends on two confirmations: sustained shipping activity through the strait and CPI not re‑igniting the rates trade. Until then, this level will be remembered less as a cycle low and more as a zone where long‑horizon capital felt comfortable adding risk, eyes glued to Hormuz.