Bitcoin’s bounce looks like a relief rally, not a new bull cycle, says CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno

Bitcoin’s push higher has rekindled confidence, but the market message reads differently to seasoned flow watchers. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, argues the move sits within a bear-phase structure and does not yet signal a durable bull cycle. I agree with the framing, and I’d stress one decisive filter to judge these moments: is price being marked up by existing participants, or is fresh, persistent capital actually expanding the base of holders?

Relief rallies are usually internal. They feed on positioning imbalances (short-covering, thin order books, forced re-risking) and rotation among current holders. True cycle pivots rely on external demand that lifts realized value and redistributes supply from strong hands at progressively higher prices over time. That single distinction—internal rotation vs. exogenous inflows—tends to explain most of the variance in whether a bounce endures.

Here’s how that lens maps across the market stack:

- On-chain cost basis and transfer of value: When a new uptrend is taking root, you often see sustained expansion in realized capitalization and evidence that coins are migrating at profits across cohorts without immediate distribution swamping price. If the move is mainly shorts covering or swing traders recycling inventory, realized value growth lags and profit-taking quickly caps advances. Without asserting current readings, that dynamic is the tell I’d monitor before calling a cycle turn.

- Spot liquidity quality: Durable advances are pulled by patient spot demand, not pushed by leverage. You want to see broad, consistent spot bids across major venues and geographies, not just episodic squeezes. If liquidity is fragmented and depth vanishes on upticks, price can overshoot, but it rarely sets a new regime without real balance-sheet buyers committing.

- Derivatives posture: In relief rallies, open interest tends to rebuild quickly with funding flipping positive as late longs chase. In cycle transitions, leverage often normalizes first, then follows trend, rather than leading it. Again, the question is whether derivatives amplify an underlying spot trend or manufacture one.

- Network usage and fee pressure: A young bull leg often coincides with rising blockspace competition from use-cases or settlement demand, which creates an organic bid for blockspace and, indirectly, for BTC as collateral and reserve. Speculative churn alone can inflate activity prints, but sustained utilization typically outlasts a relief move.

- Capital formation and corporate behavior: In a genuine regime shift, you typically see miners, service providers, and treasuries adjust issuance, hedging, and accumulation policies in ways that assume higher forward demand, not just opportunistic selling into strength. If suppliers treat every rally as an exit, it usually signals the market is still digesting prior excess.

Why the caution matters: labeling a bounce as a new cycle can push investors into path dependency—raising risk too early, tightening stops at the wrong levels, and mentally anchoring to breakout narratives. A relief rally framework, by contrast, keeps the focus on confirmation: breadth of spot participation, durability of profit transfer, and whether pullbacks are met by firm bids rather than air pockets.

What would change my mind? Evidence of sustained external buying that survives volatility—weeks of consistent spot accumulation, higher lows on declining realized losses, and leverage that follows rather than leads price. Add to that healthier market microstructure—deeper books on both sides and fewer one-way squeezes—and you have the ingredients of a cycle transition.

Moreno’s read—that Bitcoin remains in a bear-market context despite the recent bounce—is a disciplined baseline. Until the market demonstrates that new capital is in charge, not just old capital rotating, I’d treat strength as tactical, manage risk tightly, and let the data—not the dopamine—declare the cycle turn.