Bitcoin Briefly Tops $90K on Derivatives Push as U.S. Spot Bid Softens

Bitcoin tagged an eight-day high at $90,353 before fading, trading just under $90,000 and up 2.2% on the day, per CoinGecko. The headline is less the price and more the quality of the bid: the move looks engineered by leverage, not conviction spot demand.

The bid behind the breakout - Since December 18, perpetual futures open interest and cumulative volume delta (CVD) have risen while spot CVD has fallen, according to Velo data. That divergence is a classic derivatives-led push—price lifts on leverage without corresponding spot absorption. - The Coinbase premium, tracking the price gap between the U.S.-based Coinbase venue and global averages, has turned negative after a brief positive spell in late November and mid-December. That suggests the marginal U.S. buyer isn’t lifting offers. - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows in recent weeks, with no sustained return of institutional inflows evident.

Microstructure into the holidays - Aggregate open interest has been trending lower since late November, and BTC has repeatedly failed to hold above $90,000—an indication of supply meeting rallies. - Year-end liquidity often thins, so futures-led pops can overshoot and then mean-revert quickly. Users on prediction market Myriad assign only a 3% probability to a “Santa rally” over the holiday period.

Where flows are still green - Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) took in about $2.23 billion during the week of December 15-21, per DeFiLlama—the largest weekly haul since late September. - That total represents a 72% jump from the $1.293 billion in DAT inflows reported on December 17. The buying centered on Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum. - The catalyst was the Federal Reserve’s December 10 interest rate decision, which appears to have nudged corporate treasuries toward accumulating digital assets.

Range, not trend—yet Georgii Verbitskii, founder of DeFi platform TYMIO, views spot action as a sideways range roughly between $85,000 and $95,000, with no clear directional bias. He doesn’t expect resolution until mid-January, when there’s clarity on whether companies with Bitcoin-heavy treasuries remain eligible for MSCI index inclusion. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, expects a tighter holiday corridor—BTC in $86,000 to $93,000 and ETH in $2,800 to $3,200—citing the potential for returning institutional flows and regulatory clarity.

My take The single point that matters here is the absence of a durable spot bid. Negative Coinbase premium, slipping ETF balances, and declining spot CVD say U.S. demand is tentative. When price is carried by perps, the market becomes vulnerable to funding squeezes and inventory overhangs, especially when order books thin into year-end. Corporate treasury accumulation via DATs is constructive but concentrated; it doesn’t yet substitute for a broad, price-insensitive spot base.

For durability above $90,000, watch three tells: a sustained positive Coinbase premium, a turn in U.S. spot ETF net flows, and a reversal in spot CVD. Without those, the market likely treats $90,000 as a level to fade rather than a launchpad.