Bitcoin Braces for Dec. 26 Options ‘Max Pain’ at $100K as Triple Witching Tests Risk Appetite

Bitcoin is stuck below $90,000 for a third straight day and trading flat over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. While Friday’s quarterly “Witching Friday” (Dec. 19) could shake broader risk sentiment, the more material force for crypto sits a week later: a massive Bitcoin options expiry on Dec. 26 that concentrates positioning and may dictate the tape into year-end.

The equity side first. Triple witching—when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—often injects noise and volume into U.S. markets. Researchers at HashKey and Caladan see any crypto impact as second-order, transmitted through equities’ risk-on/risk-off swings. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq has risen alongside institutional participation, so forced adjustments in equities can prompt cross-asset liquidity moves and passive rebalancing in crypto. History isn’t one-sided: a March witching saw crypto slide after expiry; June delivered ~2% drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum followed by a month of chop; September’s impact was more contained.

Positioning doesn’t scream euphoria. A put-call ratio near 1.10 suggests a mildly defensive stance. Exchange-traded fund flows have been inconsistent, and holiday-thinned liquidity tends to magnify small imbalances. Layer on mixed macro: a recent uptick in U.S. unemployment has nudged markets toward expecting 2026 rate cuts, but potential Bank of Japan tightening threatens to unwind yen-funded carry trades—capital that frequently finds its way into high-beta assets like Bitcoin. Questions around the durability of AI-related capex in U.S. equities also cap risk appetite when liquidity is tight.

The focal point, however, is Dec. 26 on Deribit: more than $13.3 billion in Bitcoin options expire, representing over half of current open interest. The “max pain” zone—where the largest share of options would expire worthless—sits between $100,000 and $102,000. In practice, that level can behave like gravity when dealers hedge into expiry. The mechanics matter: if dealers are short gamma near spot, volatility begets more volatility; if they’re long gamma, price can be dampened and pulled toward dense strike clusters. Around psychologically salient levels like $100K, flows from hedging, structured products, and discretionary traders can reinforce each other and create a magnet effect. It’s not destiny, but in thin year-end markets, it often doesn’t take much to pin.

This microstructure collides with business calendar realities. Institutions are rebalancing into year-end, and some may trim risk to lock in gains, adding transient selling pressure or amplifying swings across risk assets. That’s why Friday could deliver choppy price action—especially late in the U.S. session—yet still be overshadowed by next week’s options gravity. My read: equity-driven turbulence may set the tone, but the path of least resistance for Bitcoin into the holidays will be defined by how the Dec. 26 options complex forces hedging flows around spot.

Sentiment isn’t washed out. On prediction market Myriad, participants currently assign a 68% chance that Bitcoin’s next significant move is to $100,000 rather than $69,000, up from 60% yesterday. In other words, the crowd is leaning toward the upside target that coincidentally aligns with the options “max pain” band. Into the print, that alignment can become self-referential: traders watch the magnet, trade around it, and unintentionally strengthen its pull.