Bitcoin’s next test: ETF outflows and thin liquidity leave $60K exposed, $55K in play

Bitcoin’s slide isn’t just price action; it’s a flow problem. Persistent capital outflows have thinned spot liquidity to the point where a clean break of $60,000 could invite a swift move into $53,000–$55,000. On Tuesday, bitcoin briefly traded below $62,900, off roughly 4% intraday, with some traders describing sentiment as extreme fear. At publication, it hovered near $63,400.

The fulcrum is ETFs. Five straight weeks of net redemptions have pulled roughly $4 billion from global crypto ETPs, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have seen their balances drop by about 100,000 BTC since the October cycle high, per Glassnode data cited by BRN’s Timothy Misir. That shift signals institutional de-risking and removes a major marginal bid that supported the last leg of the rally. When flows flip negative and spot volumes cool, price discovery becomes jumpy; small impulses travel farther.

Analysts are framing levels and path. XS.com’s Samer Hasn argues bitcoin has exited consolidation and slipped into a new bearish cycle, driven by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty, and tighter liquidity. He expects buyers to fade quickly and pegs $53,000–$55,000 as a probable downside zone if selling persists. Kraken VP Matt Howells-Barby notes bitcoin is on track for six consecutive weekly red candles for the first time since May 2022. He flags $60,000 as pivotal support; lose it, and the mid-to-low $50,000s become the next area of interest.

Macro remains a headwind. New U.S. tariff measures, shifting trade dynamics, and elevated geopolitical risk are compressing risk appetite across assets. Onchain confirms the defensive posture: active addresses have slipped below typical ranges, realized capital continues to contract, and unrealized losses dominate. The result is thinner participation and less willingness to lean into downside—conditions that can exacerbate volatility.

Derivatives add to the picture. The 90‑day SMA of the percentage change in open interest across top crypto assets has been negative since October 2025, indicating ongoing deleveraging. Speculative premia are compressing and leverage appetite hasn’t returned. Momentum has stabilized but not flipped: RSI has recovered modestly from oversold yet remains below thresholds consistent with a durable trend reversal.

Corporate treasuries are feeling the strain as mark-to-market pressure builds. Strategy is sitting on roughly $9 billion in unrealized losses on its bitcoin stack at current levels. Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate Ethereum treasury, faces an estimated $8 billion-plus unrealized loss on a largely ether-denominated balance. Entities in these positions rarely force liquidations en masse, but widened risk bands and governance constraints can lead to hedging, reduced dollar-cost averaging, or opportunistic de-risking—each additive to supply when liquidity is already scarce.

There are offsets. More than 400,000 BTC were accumulated between $60,000 and $70,000 during the drawdown, suggesting aggressive dip absorption in that band. Mining difficulty also ticked higher after a sharp prior drop; Charles Schwab’s Jim Ferraioli points out such rebounds have often coincided with selloffs approaching exhaustion as miners normalize operations. Still, spot volumes have cooled materially, and while aggressive sell pressure has eased at the margin, the tape remains vulnerable to sharp swings.

What matters next is flow confirmation, not just price. If $60,000 holds, the market can chop and rebuild with time—helped by a break in the ETF outflow streak, rising spot turnover, and a turn in open interest from contraction to expansion. If $60,000 gives way with momentum, the realized-price neighborhood in the mid‑$50,000s—aligned with Hasn’s $53,000–$55,000 zone and Howells-Barby’s mid-to-low $50,000s—looks like the highest-probability liquidity pocket for responsive buyers.

This isn’t a call for capitulation or hero bids. It’s a reminder that in this regime, the tape follows the plumbing. Until ETF redemptions stabilize and participation broadens, the market will lean defensive, not panicked—resilient enough to consolidate above $60,000, but exposed enough that a quick flush toward $55,000 remains a live risk.