Bitcoin ETFs Score $697M Inflows as Price Rebounds; BlackRock Leads and Morgan Stanley Joins the Race

The ETF wrapper just reminded the market why it matters for Bitcoin liquidity. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $697.2 million on Monday—the strongest single-day haul since early October—while BTC briefly reclaimed $94,000 before settling near $92,080. That mix of improving flows and a measured price retrace hints at a familiar regime: institutions buy dips through regulated wrappers, and price follows with a lag.

One fund dominated. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted $372.5 million Monday, more than half of the day’s net creations, and that came on the heels of $287.4 million Friday—already a three-month high for the vehicle. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund added another $191.2 million, underscoring how a small cluster of issuers continues to concentrate demand. Across the complex, ETFs now custody $122.86 billion worth of BTC.

Price action is catching up, not leading. Bitcoin trades around $92,080 at writing, down 2.3% versus the same time Monday but still 4.4% higher week over week. After slipping below $90,000 in December—snuffing out talk of a late “Santa rally”—BTC climbed back above $94,000 to start the year, a move that looks consistent with renewed ETF appetite rather than a wholesale shift in macro. A prediction market on Myriad now assigns a 74% probability that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before revisiting $69,000, a notable turn from the near coin-flip seen in mid-December.

The real story is how flows can become reflexive. When net creations surge, authorized participants source BTC, tighten tracking, and reduce the cost of immediacy for large buyers. That plumbing often channels incremental demand into spot with fewer frictions than offshore venues. Investors who have compliance constraints use ETFs to average in; many let the wrapper handle custody, tax, and audit. The result: flows can remain firm even when headlines wobble, and price tends to acknowledge that liquidity with a delay.

BlackRock’s sustained lead also has business implications. Scale begets lower spreads, deeper secondary liquidity, and—eventually—fee pressure. If one issuer consistently captures half the daily creations, others either differentiate on distribution or concede market share. That’s where a new entrant matters.

Morgan Stanley filed S-1 registration statements to launch the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust, signaling intent to compete on brand and distribution. The filings outline fee structures without listing the actual rates and omit custodians as well as on- and off-ramp partners for now. A spokesperson said the firm cannot yet share whether it will use crypto-native or bank-affiliated custodians. The open questions are not trivial: the custody decision shapes operational risk, insurance posture, counterparty concentration, and—in a bank’s case—how cleanly the product plugs into wirehouse platforms.

If Morgan Stanley brings its internal pipes to bear—advisor education, model portfolios, and retirement channels—ETF demand could broaden beyond early adopters, even without an aggressive fee. Yet that same distribution strength raises the usual concerns around concentration. A few household names controlling flows, keys, and messaging can simplify access while nudging the market toward a narrower set of counterparties. The trade-off: better compliance and liquidity for many investors, but more single-point dependencies in Bitcoin’s institutional stack.

For traders, the takeaway is practical. Watch creations and redemptions as a leading indicator. When flows look this resilient after a December drawdown, the path of least resistance often tilts higher unless macro delivers a shock. For allocators, the custody details in forthcoming Morgan Stanley amendments will matter more than the headline. The technology that underwrites those flows—secure key management and predictable on/off-ramps—will decide who wins the next leg, not marketing alone.