Bullish Odds Rise for Bitcoin and Ethereum as Fear Gauge Stays Stubbornly Bearish

Prediction markets are quietly marking up the odds of a short-term bounce in Bitcoin and Ethereum, even as broader sentiment remains gripped by “Extreme Fear.” That split view matters: traders are increasingly pricing a path-dependent move—pump first, pain later—rather than a simple directional call.

On Myriad, odds swung more than 20% in recent days toward a scenario where Bitcoin rallies to $84,000 before sliding to $55,000. That shift coincided with BTC’s sharp recovery from below $63,000 on Tuesday to above $69,000 on Wednesday, with price recently around $67,137. Notably, participants still lean toward a flush before a lasting run-up, assigning roughly 56% odds to a drop toward $55,000 first.

Ethereum saw a similar repricing. After jumping from about $1,815 earlier this week to over $2,100 on Wednesday—more than a 15% move—the related Myriad market tilted toward a push to $3,000, trimming the probability of a “dump” to around 62.5%. ETH last traded near $2,023.

Yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains parked in “Extreme Fear,” a level it has largely held through February after prices broke lower early in the month. That index blends social chatter, realized volatility, and momentum—signals that often lag path-centric probabilities traders weigh when they bet on specific sequences like “pump then dump.”

Broader prediction venues echo the recalibration. On Kalshi, the implied chance that Bitcoin trades below $55,000 at any point this year sits near 66%, down about 10 percentage points over the past week. Expectations for a deeper Ethereum slide—sub-$1,500—also eased by roughly 10 points to around 63%. Even so, analysts remain cautious: CryptoQuant points to a potential bear-market floor for BTC around $55,000, while Standard Chartered projects ETH could slip to $1,400 and BTC to $50,000 before a more durable rebound takes hold.

Longer-dated conviction is still restrained. On Polymarket, traders give both Bitcoin and Ethereum only a 19% probability of printing new all-time highs by the end of 2026. Context matters here: BTC and ETH were recently trading roughly 47% and 59% below their 2025 peaks, respectively—steep drawdowns that keep risk budgets tight and narrative momentum fragile.

What explains the divergence? Prediction markets tend to attract participants who price the path rather than the destination. With fear high, dealers and funds often favor hedges and downside convexity, which can set up sharp relief rallies when positioning clears—even if medium-term risks persist. Near-term optimism, then, looks like a probabilistic trade on liquidity and positioning rather than a full regime shift. Traders are effectively saying: a squeeze toward $84k for BTC or $3k for ETH is plausible, but the market still needs to test lower—$55k for BTC is a focal level—before sustained trend reversal gains credibility.

For portfolio builders, that framework nudges you to separate trade structure from thesis. Tighten timing on bounce plays, respect the still-elevated odds of downside tails (66% for BTC sub-$55k; 63% for ETH sub-$1,500 this year on Kalshi), and avoid anchoring to all-time highs that prediction markets currently assign just a 19% likelihood by 2026. In this tape, conviction lives in the sequence, not the headline direction.