Bitcoin, Ethereum OI Jumps $2B+ as Coinbase Premium Turns Positive, Hinting at Fresh Longs

Risk tolerance in crypto appears to be returning, and it’s showing up where it usually does first: derivatives. Over the last 24 hours, perpetual futures open interest for Bitcoin and Ethereum climbed by roughly $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, reaching the highest dollar levels since last month, according to CryptoQuant. CoinGlass also shows Bitcoin’s total open interest at a more-than-two-month peak, with Ethereum at its strongest mark in about three weeks. Spot prices followed: BTC traded near $72,103 and ETH around $2,216 on Thursday, with both assets up more than 7% over the past week and Bitcoin touching a three-week high earlier in the day.

The detail that matters most here is not just the notional jump in leverage, but the rise in coin-denominated open interest for both BTC and ETH. That shift suggests traders are adding net new long exposure rather than simply riding a liquidation cascade. Roughly $182 million in short positions were wiped out in the same 24-hour window, per CoinGlass—meaning liquidations contributed, but likely did not dominate the move. When coin-margined or coin-denominated OI expands alongside price, it usually reflects intentional risk-taking, not passive deleveraging. This is the market telling you traders are voluntarily stepping in on the long side, sizing into a view rather than being forced out of shorts.

Why now? The catalyst looks macro. CryptoQuant framed the synchronized build as positioning into an expected improvement in risk sentiment following headlines of a conditional ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Whether that ceasefire endures is uncertain, but the market often pre-positions when tail risks appear to recede, and derivatives are the fastest venue to express that thesis. The psychology is straightforward: when volatility risk feels better contained, traders are more willing to pay funding and hold directional longs.

There’s also a clear U.S. footprint. The Coinbase Premium Index—tracking the price spread between Coinbase and Binance—has flipped positive for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. A positive premium typically indicates stronger U.S.-led demand, and the simultaneous move across BTC and ETH points to broad re-engagement rather than a single-asset bid. If the ceasefire holds and there’s no fresh escalation over the next couple of weeks, that premium could stay in positive territory, reinforcing a constructive near-term path as U.S. buyers remain active.

From a market-structure perspective, derivative-led rallies cut both ways. On the one hand, increased coin-denominated OI can support price discovery and liquidity as traders commit capital with higher conviction. On the other, it concentrates risk in funding-sensitive structures that can unwind quickly if headlines flip or if basis widens. For investors, the tell to watch isn’t just total OI in dollars; it’s whether coin-denominated exposure continues to expand, funding stays orderly, and the Coinbase premium remains onside—all signals of durable, organic demand rather than a transient squeeze.

Context matters. Despite the recent pop, both assets remain well below last year’s highs. Bitcoin is trading about 43% under its all-time peak of $126,080, and Ethereum sits roughly 55% below its August record of $4,946. The latest bounce has reversed weeks of grinding, macro-driven downside, but it hasn’t erased the drawdowns. That gap leaves room for further upside if the risk backdrop keeps improving and U.S. spot demand persists—yet it also underscores how dependent the tape may be on sustained macro calm.

In short, the market is leaning risk-on again, with the key tell being the rise in coin-denominated open interest alongside a positive U.S. premium. If those two indicators hold, the bid likely sticks. If they fade—or if geopolitics reintroduce headline risk—this build in leverage can just as easily unwind. For now, traders have chosen to press longs rather than wait for confirmation.