Bitcoin, Ethereum Slide as Iran Talks Sway Risk Sentiment; Trump Says He’s ‘Not Desperate’ While Oil Jumps

Markets don’t trade headlines; they trade the credibility of a path. Thursday’s tape showed how quickly that path can blur: cryptocurrencies and equities sold off as messages around potential talks with Iran diverged, then firmed up after the close when tone shifted again.

Bitcoin changed hands near $69,170 in the afternoon, down 2.3% over 24 hours, after an intraday dip toward $68,000 before stabilizing. Ethereum fell 4.4% to $2,070 and Solana slid 5% to $86, putting all three in the red for the week, according to CoinGecko. U.S. stocks echoed the move: the S&P 500 closed 1.7% lower, the Nasdaq lost more than 2.3%, and the Dow dropped 470 points. After equities shut, crypto prices turned higher.

The narrative whiplash was political as much as macro. Ahead of the open, President Donald Trump warned Iran’s leadership to “get serious soon” about ending nearly four weeks of fighting or there is “NO TURNING BACK.” Later, during a cabinet meeting, he argued Iran was “begging to make a deal” and described himself as “the opposite of desperate,” countering media reports. On Truth Social, he added that peace talks “are going very well” and extended a self-imposed deadline for targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. That optimism contrasted with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Arghici on Wednesday, who said there is “no intention of negotiating for now,” per BBC. White House special envoy Steve Witkoff said the U.S. had delivered a 15-point framework for a deal via Pakistan.

Despite the chop, Bitcoin still trades above $63,200—the low set 28 days ago when the war broke out—but positioning reflects caution. Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, noted ongoing demand for downside hedges in Bitcoin derivatives. On-chain flows look defensive too: capital has been moving into yield-bearing stablecoins and liquid staking tokens, signaling a tilt toward carry and capital preservation while geopolitical risk remains elevated. That mix—paying for protection while parking in real-yield instruments—often caps upside follow-through and compresses time horizons, because rallies meet supply from hedgers and dips find demand from income-seeking allocators.

Energy is reinforcing the risk premium. Brent crude futures jumped 5% to $107 per barrel on Thursday, trimming the week’s losses, according to Trading Economics. Prediction markets are leaning into the upside tail: on Myriad, traders saw a 60% chance that crude hits $120 before $55, and during March that probability climbed as high as 78%. Higher oil tends to tighten financial conditions indirectly by stoking inflation expectations, which bleeds into tech multiples and, by extension, high-beta crypto.

Path dependency showed up earlier this week in the other direction. Bitcoin topped $71,000 after Trump said he instructed the U.S. military to pause planned strikes on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days, pending meetings. As those five days became more conditional, the bid faded. Over the last 24 hours, users on Myriad flipped more cautious on Bitcoin’s near-term path, pricing a 52% chance that $55,000 is tagged before $84,000.

What matters now is whether rhetoric converges into a credible framework traders can underwrite. Until then, two anchors define the tape: the $63.2K war-day low that marks systemic stress, and the $68K–$71K range where hedging supply and macro sensitivity keep variance high. As long as derivatives desks keep paying for downside and on-chain flows favor yield over momentum, crypto will behave like a risk asset shadowing oil and equities, with politics setting the cadence and options desks setting the amplitude.