Bitcoin Poised for Five Straight Red Months as Drawdown Tracks 2018 Bear-Market Depths

Bitcoin isn’t just drifting lower—it’s testing the market’s tolerance for trend persistence. With February already down 13.98%, a monthly close in the red would mark five consecutive losing months, the longest stretch since mid-2018, when losses ran for six months. Price action has now erased 52.44% from the October all-time high over 123 days, inching within 3.82 percentage points of the 56.26% 2018 drawdown—and doing it faster than that 153-day slide.

The tape today reflects that stress. Bitcoin trades at $67,621, off 1.70% in the last 24 hours. The broader crypto market fell 1.33% in the same period, with total capitalization at $2.33 trillion. Sentiment remains fragile: the Fear & Greed Index ticked up from 8 to 12 but still sits in “extreme fear.”

Why the streak matters Prolonged red months change behavior. Streaks often push traders from “buy-the-dip” to “manage-the-loss,” and that shift tends to amplify mechanical selling. Since January 12, there hasn’t been a single day where short liquidations outpaced long liquidations, per Coinglass—meaning leveraged longs have repeatedly been the side getting forced out. In crypto, that feedback loop is powerful: margin calls trigger market sells, market sells move price, price pressure liquidates more longs.

That reflexivity is now visible in forward-looking odds. On Myriad, a crypto prediction market, traders assign a 60% chance that BTC touches $55,000 before $84,000—an explicit nod to near-term downside skew. When capital is wagered on a level path, it often reflects positioning constraints as much as opinion.

Cross-asset signals are compounding the bias. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped after a roughly 10% post-earnings decline in Microsoft rattled tech. Precious metals whipsawed as well: silver futures plunged about 31% on January 30, the steepest one-day drop since 1980, and gold pulled back from recent highs. When leadership falters and havens chop, multi-asset allocators frequently de-risk first and ask questions later. Crypto seldom escapes that rotation cleanly.

What the chart actually says Daily structure has failed to reclaim momentum. BTC is trading beneath the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), and both the EMA200 and the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) are overhead—functioning as layered resistance. That alignment doesn’t need a “death cross” to be restrictive; it simply means rallies have to punch through two supply zones in sequence.

Momentum confirms. The Relative Strength Index sits at 34.7—weak, but not yet washed out—leaving room for additional downside before contrarian signals emerge. The Average Directional Index is elevated at 56.4, well above the 25 threshold that typically marks a strong trend. With price falling into high ADX, sellers still have control.

Roadmap for repair—not reversal Can Bitcoin bounce? Certainly. But a reflex rally does not equal a regime change. To credibly argue for trend resumption, price would need to do one of two unlikely things in the near term: - Rip back above $100,000 to reassert the 2024–2025 uptrend, or - Build a sustained series of higher lows that respect a well-defined support extension and flip the EMAs from resistance to support.

Without one of those, counter-trend pops may remain inventory-clearing events for patient sellers rather than new legs higher.

What to watch into month-end - Liquidation profile: A day where short liquidations finally exceed long wipes would suggest balance returning to derivatives. - EMA tests: Clean reclaim of the EMA200, then EMA50, with volume, would indicate improving demand quality. - Prediction markets: A move in odds toward the $84,000 path would imply risk appetite is peeking back in. - Macro tone: Stabilization in mega-cap tech and calmer metals could remove a headwind.

With roughly two weeks left in February, the market is negotiating not just price, but confidence. Streaks often end abruptly—but they rarely end without stress forcing the change.