Bitcoin Nears an Inflection, But Capitulation Metrics Still Don’t Signal a Durable Bottom

Bitcoin’s tape looks like it wants to turn, yet the on-chain profile still lacks the hallmarks of a lasting bottom. The gap between “stress” and “capitulation” is the tell—and it continues to shape risk-reward over the next leg.

Focus on that capitulation gap - Long-term holder (LTH) profitability has slid from roughly 142% in October to near breakeven. Historically, cycle lows tend to arrive when LTHs wear 30%–40% losses—pain that isn’t evident yet. - The MVRV Z-score has not visited its classic oversold pocket around -0.4 to -0.7 where durable bases often form. Recent readings near 1.2 imply value is improving but not washed out. - NUPL hovers near 0.1. Major lows typically emerge when holders carry about 20% unrealized losses, which would push NUPL deeper.

Taken together, LTH capitulation, MVRV, NUPL, and the share of supply in profit sit in “no man’s land”—beyond complacency, short of a full reset. That’s why many still treat this as a mid-cycle drawdown with room for a final flush if catalysts align.

Macro is still driving the bus A hotter-than-expected jobs report reset policy expectations toward “higher for longer.” Traders now await delayed January inflation data on Friday—postponed by the partial government shutdown. A surprise uptick in headline inflation could reinforce restrictive rates and pressure risk assets, crypto included. As Bitget’s Ryan Lee has suggested, liquidity remains tight, correlations can reassert quickly, and a washout becomes more probable if equities roll.

Traditional finance desks are leaning the same way. Recent views from Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered look for a move into the $50,000–$58,000 range in the near term, consistent with the idea that valuation gauges have not reached capitulation territory.

Reflexive floors are forming—but they can be fragile There are signs seller pressure may be tiring: - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 11/100 on Feb. 11—extreme fear that often precedes violent mean-reversion. - Bitcoin briefly tagged the psychological $60,000 area last week and snapped back ~19% within 24 hours as social sentiment capitulated. - Accumulation addresses recorded a single-day intake of 66,940 BTC, suggesting large buyers are actively defending $60,000–$62,000.

FalconX’s Sean McNulty frames the drawdown as macro-driven deleveraging rather than a 2022-style, system-wide failure (think FTX). The absence of a catastrophic blow-up often produces grinding bases with episodic rebounds rather than one-and-done lows. In that context, the estimated realized cost basis near $55,000 is a level many watch; if MVRV compresses further toward its historical oversold band, the probability of a durable floor improves. Until then, defenses can hold—until they don’t.

What matters from here - Watch whether MVRV Z-score bleeds toward -0.4 to -0.7. - Track NUPL for a shift toward ~20% unrealized losses. - Monitor LTH margins for evidence of 30%–40% drawdowns. - Keep an eye on Friday’s inflation print; a benign surprise could relieve pressure, while a hot number may force the final shakeout into the $58k–$50k zone highlighted by banks.

In a macro-led selloff without industry-wide collapse, bottoms often take time to build. The market is sending mixed but narrowing signals: value is improving, whales are probing support, yet the classical capitulation thresholds that have anchored past cycle lows remain unmet.