Bitcoin Climbs as Oil Reverses; Prediction Markets Enter Prime Time

Bitcoin stabilized after a sharp risk-off wobble, with the asset up 1% at $70.4k following a dip below $69k. The catalyst mix was simple: oil reversed lower after spiking, and comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggested the conflict with Iran could end faster than many feared—loosening macro stress and nudging risk appetite back on. U.S. equities recovered alongside crude’s pullback, while gold slipped 0.5%, lagging BTC again.

Key market moves - BTC rebounded to $70.4k after breaching $69k intraday - Oil swung as much as 15% during the session and finished down 2% to $94.80 - Gold fell 0.5% to $4,670

The story that matters: prediction markets are going mainstream Event markets had a breakout day. Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction-market partner and signed an “integrity framework” agreement with the CFTC to enable confidential information-sharing around market threats. In parallel, the Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi is raising at a $22 billion valuation in an ongoing round led by Coatue, targeting roughly $1 billion in financing. Over the past three weeks, Polymarket and Kalshi have cleared a combined $5 billion in volume—week after week.

Why this shift is sticking: - Product-market fit: Live events are a native 24/7 asset class. March Madness alone appears to be driving record-setting flows this week. For users, the proposition is not just speculation; it’s real-time price discovery on information that traditional books and exchanges either gate or timebox. - Business durability: Valuations like $22B for Kalshi imply belief in deep, recurring liquidity and a sizable fee pool. Scale compounds through network effects: more markets attract sharper forecasters, better odds attract capital, and capital attracts institutional liquidity providers. - Tech rails: Onchain settlement and transparent odds enhance trust, but they create new surface areas—oracle design, dispute resolution, latency—that only a handful of teams can operationalize at scale without breaking. That capability becomes a moat as volumes accelerate. - Conduct risk: MLB’s integrity agreement with a federal regulator signals an adult conversation about manipulation and insider information. It sets a tone: markets can coexist with compliance if pipes for surveillance, data sharing, and enforcement are in place. That matters if you expect traditional advertisers, leagues, and brokers to show up.

The ripple effects are already visible. Myriad closed a seed round backed by MoonPay Ventures, Auros, EVG, Side Door Ventures, Verda Ventures, and angels including Tom Lee, Blondish, and Luca Netz, with capital earmarked for product, liquidity, and expansion. Gemini shares jumped ~7% after hours to $6.45 as the company cut 30% of staff and said it would focus on prediction markets. When exchanges, leagues, and investors converge on the same market design, it often signals the flywheel is turning.

Elsewhere in crypto - Crypto.com trims workforce by 12%—about 180 employees—in an “enterprise-wide AI” pivot, its third reduction in four years. Framing an exchange around AI-driven execution is bold; if costs fall and user experience tightens, it could work, but execution risk is nontrivial. - Hyperliquid’s reach is widening. JPMorgan analysts flagged its appeal to non-crypto traders seeking 24/7 oil exposure via perpetual futures. That’s consistent with its recent expansion into real-world and macro-linked perps. In a related regulatory shift, the SEC approved Nasdaq’s rule change to allow tokenized securities to trade on the exchange—another step toward round-the-clock market infrastructure. - BlackRock’s iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) reached $254 million in AUM one week after its March 12 Nasdaq debut. - U.S. ETFs: Bitcoin funds saw $90 million in net outflows Thursday; Ether ETFs recorded $136 million in outflows.

Daily board - Majors: BTC +1% $70.4k; ETH -1% $2,140; SOL flat $89.2 - Leaders: TAO +14%, PI +7%, FET +7% - Memes: DOGE flat, SHIB +4%, PEPE flat, TRUMP -1%, PENGU +2%, SPX +1%, FARTCOIN +4% - Onchain movers: Chibi +5,700%, fine999 +6,700%, PUNCH +26%, testicle +24% - NFTs: Punks -1% at 28.9 ETH; Pudgy -3% at 4.06 ETH; BAYC -1% at 5.17 ETH; Hypurr’s -4% at 432 HYPE; Chromie Squiggles +4%; Bearish (+55) - Notable: TAO rallied 13% to $280 after a mention by Chamath and Jensen Huang on the “All In” podcast - Prediction markets: Volumes likely hit fresh records Thursday as March Madness tipped off

What today’s tape suggests When oil cools and ceasefire odds rise, BTC tends to reprice quickly, but the structural story is elsewhere: information markets are institutionalizing. MLB’s exclusivity with Polymarket, Kalshi’s target $22B valuation, and a fresh seed for Myriad show capital, counterparties, and compliance migrating toward the same center. That alignment rarely happens without staying power.