Bitcoin’s Signal Problem: Shutdown Wipes Out October CPI and Jobs Data, Repricing Fed Odds

Bitcoin just lost a key macro anchor. With the U.S. government reopening after the longest shutdown in 236 years, officials now say October’s inflation and employment reports likely won’t be published—removing two of the most consequential inputs for year-end positioning and the Federal Reserve’s reaction function.

The political backdrop matters here. The White House blamed the data loss on the protracted closure, which dragged on as Democrats pushed to extend expiring tax credits aimed at lowering health costs for millions. Congress moved late this week—Senate on Monday, House on Wednesday—and President Donald Trump signed the measure to restore operations. But restoring normal government isn’t the same as restoring the statistical record. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday the October CPI and payrolls are unlikely to be released and that the gap will permanently impair the time series the Fed relies on.

The market is already pricing the “missing signal.” Bitcoin fell 1.1% in the past 24 hours to $102,100, per CoinGecko, extending a 10% weekly drawdown. Prediction markets took a step back from near-term upside: on Myriad (owned by Dastan), the probability that BTC tags $115,000 before $85,000 slipped to 58.8% from 61.4% in a day. In rates, December futures now put the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut near 50%, a notable softening versus prior confidence in easing. Analysts caution that the Fed’s blind spot increases the chance of a policy error.

Focus on one thing: how the absence of hard data shifts behavior. When the usual macro gauges disappear, traders don’t stop inferring—they change what they infer from. Attention migrates from official releases to second-tier proxies and narrative momentum. That substitution raises variance. As GreeksLive’s Adam Chu noted, the blackout elevates the stakes for the next prints and gives statistical agencies more room to calibrate when they resume, which in turn widens the band of plausible outcomes the market must discount today.

In crypto, that plays out as a higher “policy risk premium.” Bitcoin’s path tends to hinge on the expected trajectory of real rates and liquidity. Without CPI and payrolls, market participants lean more on survey data, high-frequency price trackers, and cross-asset signals—inputs that are noisier and easier to over-interpret. Tim Sun of HashKey expects trading to skew sentiment-driven, making sustained upside tougher to hold. He also anticipates the Fed will tilt toward risk management; pushing too hard on hawkish guidance could stress already fragile pockets of liquidity.

There’s a psychological layer, too. When the scoreboard goes dark, investors often default to protecting against tails rather than maximizing base-case outcomes. That means:

- Fewer conviction longs into event risk - Faster de-risking on negative headlines - Greater sensitivity to positioning and flows

For Bitcoin, that usually translates into episodic volatility, thinner liquidity around key levels, and momentum that exhausts quickly. The Myriad repricing illustrates that shift: not a collapse in bullishness, but a subtle rotation toward caution as the information set degrades.

Business implications ripple beyond trading desks. Venues and data providers become de facto macro oracles as users seek substitutes for CPI and NFP. That raises competitive opportunity and ethical responsibility—curation and methodology suddenly matter more because they influence real money. It also raises a coordination problem for policymakers: a “data-light” Fed communicating certainty risks credibility; acknowledging uncertainty while emphasizing flexibility may better stabilize expectations.

What would change the regime? A clear next data release, or a credible interim framework from the Fed that explains how it will weigh alternative indicators until the series is back on track. Until then, expect markets to pay a higher premium for clarity—and to punish overconfident narratives. In crypto terms: fade one-way extrapolation, respect liquidity, and keep your eyes on rates markets, because they are still the best proxy for the policy path when the official dashboard is dark.