Bitcoin Slips as Powell’s Likely Final FOMC Freezes Rates; AI Capex Surges, Meta Revives USDC Payouts

Markets opened with a clear message: liquidity isn’t loosening. After what appears to be Jerome Powell’s final press conference as Fed chair, crypto majors faded 2-3% and Bitcoin traded near $76,000. The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in an 8-4 vote, and the dissents alone told you this committee won’t be easy to steer—especially for incoming Chair Kevin Warsh. Powell added a curveball: he will stay on the Board beyond May 15 “to be determined,” citing ongoing Trump administration investigations into the Fed—legal battles the central bank has “been successful” in so far, but which are “not over.” He framed policy as navigating four overlapping supply shocks—pandemic, Ukraine, tariffs, and the Iran war—each capable of lifting inflation and unemployment at once. Rate cut odds for 2026 slid to 1% from roughly 25% a week ago.

The signal that matters for Bitcoin Traders often reduce Bitcoin to a single macro knob—liquidity. The sharper read here is uncertainty. Four dissents and Powell’s extended presence alongside incoming leadership introduce a policy-reaction-function premium. When cuts are effectively priced out and the path is contested, long-duration risk—crypto included—usually cheapens until a new anchor forms.

Technologically, Bitcoin doesn’t care about the Fed; liquidity does. ETF outflows and higher term premia can overpower the “digital gold” story in the short run, even as on-chain fundamentals stay stable. Psychologically, investors anchor to near-term catalysts; with cuts off the table and leadership handoff in sight, marginal buyers hesitate. Businesses sensitive to capital costs—miners, leveraged traders, and growth protocols—tighten, reinforcing near-term selling pressure. Ethically, a central bank under political scrutiny faces credibility questions that nudge some allocators toward censorship-resistant assets—but that bid rarely front-runs tightening; it reacts to it. The setup argues for selective accumulation on stress rather than chasing beta into policy ambiguity.

Big Tech’s AI capex makes its case - Alphabet: Google Cloud revenue +63% YoY to $20.1B; net income +81%; CEO said enterprise AI became the primary cloud growth driver for the first time in Q1; capex raised to $180B-$190B; stock +7%. - Amazon: AWS revenue $37.59B (+28%), nearly $1B above consensus; operating income +23% to $14.16B; AI revenue run rate confirmed at $15B+; stock +3%. - Microsoft: Azure +40%, ahead of expectations; stock -2%. - Meta: revenue $56.31B (+33%), beat on EPS and ad metrics, but raised 2026 capex by $10B at both ends to $125B-$145B; cited “internet disruptions in Iran” for a user growth miss; shares -9% after-hours.

Meta tiptoes back into crypto payments Meta quietly rolled out USDC payouts for select creators in Colombia and the Philippines on Solana and Polygon. Creators can link MetaMask, Phantom, or Binance wallets; Stripe handles backend and crypto-specific tax reporting. Meta isn’t issuing a stablecoin and offers no off-ramp—creators must convert via third parties. It’s a low-regret, compliance-friendly wedge back into crypto rails.

Protocol economics: records don’t equal token returns Sky Protocol (the rebrand of MakerDAO), a $13B protocol, reported record Q1 2026: about $124M in gross revenue and nearly $61M in net revenue, driven by real-world asset collateral and fees (stability, liquidation, peg module). The SKY token still fell ~2.4%, underscoring a familiar point: unless tokenomics direct cash flows (buybacks, distributions), revenue alone rarely lifts token prices.

A retail Bitcoin flywheel that’s actually spinning Steak ‘n Shake began taking Bitcoin via Lightning across all U.S. locations in May 2025. Since then, same-store sales rose “dramatically,” payment processing fees fell ~50% versus credit cards, and the firm routed BTC receipts into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve instead of converting to cash. It executed a $10M treasury buy in January and another $10M in April ahead of Bitcoin 2026, launched a Bitcoin-themed milkshake, and started a 21-cent-per-hour BTC bonus for hourly staff—funded from the reserve. Treasury stands at 210 BTC and growing, with the COO describing a self-reinforcing loop: BTC payments → higher sales → upgrades and bonuses → more traffic.

Macro, flows, and notable moves - Crypto: BTC -2% ($76k), ETH -3% ($2,260), SOL -2% ($83), HYPE -4% ($39). LUNC +3%, POL +2%, TRON +1%. - Commodities: Oil +2% ($105), Gold +2% ($4,640). Stock futures green after Big Tech and Eli Lilly beats. - Corporate/infra: Jack Mallers’ Twenty One Capital popped after Tether proposed merging XXI with Strike and miner Elektron Energy—combining treasury, mining, payments, and capital markets under one public company; XXI holds 43,514 BTC (~$3.3B), third among public firms. - Payments: Visa expanded its stablecoin settlement pilot to Base, Polygon, Canton, Circle’s Arc, and Stripe’s Tempo; run rate hit $7B annualized, up 50% QoQ. - Institutional: MoonPay acquired Israel’s Sodot for $100M in stock and launched MoonPay Institutional for banks and asset managers, led by former CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham. - Enforcement: Alex Mashinsky permanently banned from crypto under a $10M FTC settlement; a $4.72B judgment was entered but largely suspended. - ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs saw $138M in net outflows; Ethereum ETFs saw $88M in outflows.

Meme, tokens, and NFTs - Memes: Broadly red—DOGE -3%, SHIB -3%, PEPE -5%, PENGU -6%, TRUMP -4%, BONK -4%, SPX -7%, FARTCOIN -7%. Notables: WISH (+71x), Bio (+33%), testicle (+15%). - Tokens/airdrops: MegaETH’s MEGA opened at $0.18 with a $200M market cap ($1.8B FDV). Pump Fun launched Charity Coins to route proceeds appropriately for cause-related memes. Hyperliquid detailed fees for HIP-4, a prediction market inside the same margin as perps—no open-position fees; costs at close/settlement. - NFTs: Leaders green led by Bored Apes; Punks steady at 30.9 ETH; BAYC +10% to 10.8 ETH; Pudgy +1% to 5.34 ETH; Hypurr’s flat at 350 HYPE. Movers: Azuki Elementals +25%, Kodas +22%, MAYC +12%.

When the policy path fogs, capital gets picky. Crypto tends to reprice first; quality tends to recover first. That’s the playbook until the Fed’s new tone is unmistakable.