Bitcoin and Solana Lose the 200-Day EMA as Golden Cross Hopes Unravel

The crypto tape just flipped risk-off. Total market capitalization sits at $3.01 trillion, down 4.27% over 24 hours, as Bitcoin and Solana sliced through key supports with decisive, full-bodied candles that rarely leave room for optimistic spin. Prediction market traders are already repositioning: on Myriad, the probability that Bitcoin touches $100,000 before revisiting $69,000 has been marked down to 72.5% from 85% a day earlier, while 90% of capital wagering on a new Solana all-time high before July is now leaning “no.”

The tell that matters: the 200-day EMA break Traders often talk about golden crosses, but the more consequential signal today is who controls the 200-day EMA. Bitcoin losing that line with a wide-range candle and minimal wicks typically means systematic strategies step back, liquidity thins on the bid, and countertrend bounces get sold until acceptance returns above the average.

- Bitcoin price and structure: BTC slipped below the psychological $90,000 level and prints $89,208 after falling 3.62% in the last 14 hours. The recent golden cross setup has been invalidated, and more importantly, price cracked an ascending trendline that had supported the market since the December lows—now likely to act as overhead resistance.

- Momentum and trend strength: ADX sits at 30.5—almost three points lighter than yesterday—signaling the prior bullish push is losing energy. With RSI at 41.7, momentum is bearish without being stretched; there’s room for further downside before oversold dynamics kick in.

- Higher-timeframe levels: The Fibonacci retracement mapped from the all-time high to the late-November low has been respected, and the next thick support band shows up near ~$80,600 (with ~$80,500 on many traders’ levels). Immediate levels line up at: - Resistance: $91,500 (near-term), $98,000 (strong) - Support: $86,000 (near-term), ~$80,500–$80,600 (Fibonacci zone)

Why this matters now: Golden crosses are lagging; the 200-day EMA break is a live signal. When that breach occurs on a heavy candle, trend followers often reduce risk, market makers widen spreads, and would-be dip buyers tend to wait lower. Until BTC reclaims the 200-day with convincing follow-through and rebuilds acceptance above the broken trendline, the bias can remain sell-the-rip.

Solana mirrors the BTC regime shift SOL is tracking the Bitcoin impulse—down 5.06% to $126.61—and it, too, cut through its 200-day EMA with authority. The short-term 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA, unwinding the brief golden cross and inviting what traders call a death cross—where bears often dictate flow.

- Structure and momentum: The strongest nearby support is clustered around $117. If that area caves, $100 becomes an obvious psychological and technical magnet. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator points lower, suggesting sellers may not be finished.

- Context and sentiment: Solana traded above $250 in September; prices now reflect roughly a 50% drawdown. Prediction market participants are acting accordingly, with 90% of the money expecting no new all-time high for SOL before July.

- Key levels: - Resistance: $140 (major volume area), $150 (near-term) - Support: $117 (near-term), $100 (psychological)

How I’m reading the tape This looks less like simple volatility and more like a potential regime transition where higher-timeframe averages retake control. In these phases, the crowd that front-ran the golden cross often gets trapped, macro buyers demand a discount, and patience gets rewarded. For Bitcoin, I’d watch for a clean reclaim of the 200-day EMA, a daily close back above the broken December trendline, and an ADX that stabilizes before trusting upside. For Solana, the reaction at $117 and any swift rejection wicks near $100 will be telling.

Myriad’s repricing—72.5% odds for $100K before $69K versus 85% yesterday—isn’t capitulation, but it reflects a sensible pullback in bullish conviction. If the market can’t quickly repair those 200-day breaks, the path of least resistance can remain lower into that ~$80.5K–$80.6K BTC zone and $117/$100 on SOL. The reversal, when it comes, usually starts with acceptance back above the 200-day—not the other way around.