Bitcoin Targets $75K as Put Skew Eases and Spot Demand Takes the Wheel

Bitcoin is testing the upper end of its range with a cleaner backdrop: downside hedging is getting cheaper while spot demand does the heavy lifting. BTC trades near $74,420, up 5.2% over 24 hours (CoinGecko), and roughly 13% higher since Feb 28—outpacing the S&P 500 and gold over the same window. Risk assets have firmed as well: the S&P 500 closed Monday up 1%, its strongest daily close since hostilities between the U.S. and Iran began on Feb 28. Over that period, the S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei are up about 1% while gold has slipped around 9%.

The key shift sits in the options surface. Deribit’s 25‑delta skew has moved from about -10% to -4.5%, signaling reduced urgency for downside protection. When puts command less of a premium, it usually means dealers and macro participants are less willing to pay up for crash insurance. That aligns with what matters under the hood: this leg looks spot‑led rather than leverage‑chased. Funding rates and futures open interest have cooled, a classic tell of deleveraging and healthier momentum, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $786 million of net inflows last week (Glassnode).

I read the divergence between improving skew and a softer volatility spread—a measure that has edged lower—as cautious optimism. Traders are trimming tail hedges, but they are not chasing convexity. That’s consistent with a market that trusts steady ETF absorption more than it trusts a macro all‑clear. You can see why: de‑escalation signals in the Middle East, easing oil spikes, a softer core CPI print, and rebounding spot ETF inflows collectively dampened risk‑off pressure. A conditional two‑week ceasefire announced on April 8 helps, but the situation is hardly resolved; U.S. blockades of Iranian ports remain in place, and another round of talks is being floated after former President Donald Trump said Iranian officials “want to work a deal,” per reporting this week.

Should BTC hold above $75,000, the tape could explore the $80,000 area, provided ETF inflows and institutional interest stay supportive. That’s where the psychology matters: consistent spot demand tends to compress put premia further, nudging systematic flows and risk budgets to follow price higher. But the guardrails are obvious. Sticky inflation, a still‑restrictive Fed, or a breakdown in the two‑week truce could quickly widen skews and shove BTC back into its prior range.

Prediction markets reflect that hesitation. On Myriad, users assign just a 4.6% probability that the Fed cuts more than 25 bps before July. And despite crude slipping below $100 per barrel, the same market gives a 75% chance that oil’s next significant move is above $120—an outcome that would likely reprice both inflation risk and crypto volatility.

For now, Bitcoin is behaving like a crisis‑resilient asset within a tentative risk‑on environment: spot‑driven bids, improving skew, and ETF demand absorbing supply. Until the volatility spread turns, though, positioning suggests investors prefer to grind higher rather than sprint.