Breakeven Sellers Weigh on Bitcoin as U.S. ETFs Log $935M in Three-Day Outflows

The early-January chase has cooled. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a third straight day of redemptions on Thursday, pulling $205.5 million and lifting the three-day net outflow to $934.8 million, per Farside data. Since the year began, inflows have beaten outflows on only two sessions, though the 7‑day net flow still sits modestly positive at $240.7 million—an important reminder that the longer-term bid hasn’t disappeared so much as it has paused.

Price action is reflecting that reset. Bitcoin’s year-to-date gain shrank from 8% on Wednesday to 4% on Thursday, with spot hovering around $91,100 after a brief dip below $90,000, according to CoinGecko.

The fulcrum here is breakeven supply. On-chain realized cost distributions show a dense cluster of recent buyers between $92,100 and $117,400 (Glassnode), meaning many top-tick entries are now back near break-even. When that cohort is given a clean exit, supply tends to meet every rally. That’s not an existential bear case; it’s mechanics. Markets often need time to absorb inventory from holders whose thesis was short-term momentum, not multi-quarter accumulation.

Flows mirror that psychology. This week’s redemptions look like tactical de-risking rather than a demand vacuum. Capital is rotating post-year-end, BTC failed to stick above roughly $92,000, and macro noise—rising U.S. jobless claims and geopolitical uncertainty after the U.S. operation in Venezuela—has pushed traders to lighten risk. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, framed it as positioning cleanup, not a structural shift.

Options confirm the tone. Short-dated call skew has flipped negative again, signaling the early-January upside grab has faded and the market is leaning toward a consolidation regime. In that backdrop, upside is probably constrained until overhead supply is absorbed. If price stabilizes and rallies, the short-term holder cost basis around $98,900 is a practical checkpoint; reclaiming and holding above that level would suggest marginal buyers are reasserting control.

What to watch: - ETF breadth and persistence: One or two green days won’t change much. A week of consistent net inflows would. - Supply absorption near $92,100–$95,000: Repeated tags with diminishing seller response indicate progress. - Options term structure: A steepening call wing and improving front-end skew would hint at renewed momentum demand. - Macro tape: A softer labor backdrop or easing geopolitical tension could nudge risk back on; the reverse can extend chop.

My take: respect the ceiling until the market proves it can take inventory from breakeven sellers without stalling. That means quieter candles, higher lows, and improving flow quality—not just a headline pump. ETF outflows of ~$935 million across three sessions are meaningful, but they sit against a still-positive 7‑day net flow and a structural buyer base that hasn’t exited, just stepped aside. Consolidation near $90,000–$95,000, while options markets reset and supply thins, is the path that usually unlocks the next sustainable leg.