Canaan’s Q4 revenue surges on record ASIC deliveries as North American demand lifts treasury to a new peak

Canaan closed Q4 with clear operating momentum: revenue more than doubled year over year, hardware deliveries reached an all‑time high, and large purchase commitments from North American miners helped drive a record company treasury. The mix of scale orders and balance‑sheet strength matters more than the headline growth rate.

I’m focused on one thread—why building a record treasury alongside peak shipments is strategically potent in this phase of the mining cycle.

- Pricing and working‑capital discipline: Record unit volumes supported by large North American orders usually come with prepayment schedules or milestone terms. That can front‑load cash inflows and reduce receivables risk, amplifying treasury growth when demand is strongest. If Canaan kept pricing rational and avoided extended vendor financing, the cash conversion underscores a healthier revenue quality rather than a volume-at-any-cost strategy.

- Customer consolidation and durability: North America continues to concentrate hashpower among a smaller set of well‑capitalized operators. Big orders suggest Canaan leaned into that consolidation. The upside is predictable shipment lanes and easier support logistics. The trade‑off is counterparty concentration. A larger treasury cushions that exposure if any marquee customer delays acceptance, faces site commissioning slippage, or reprices post‑delivery.

- Technology cadence and fleet refresh logic: Record shipments at this point in the ASIC efficiency curve signal miners are still prioritizing joules-per-terahash gains where power is constrained or hedged. For Canaan, monetizing this demand while stacking treasury gives optionality to accelerate next‑gen chip NRE, secure wafer allocations, or buffer foundry prepayments without tapping dilutive capital when markets wobble.

- Signaling and cycle psychology: Managements often expand treasuries when they expect tighter supply or rising cost of capital. Holding a record cash/BTC war chest during a demand upswing communicates confidence without overpromising. It also builds credibility with institutional buyers who care about warranty coverage, spares availability, and long‑term service—areas where balance‑sheet depth is a competitive edge.

- Risk posture and ethics of supply concentration: Serving a wave of North American mega‑orders can crowd out smaller buyers in other regions. A robust treasury can fund more balanced allocation policies—maintaining fair lead times and support—rather than chasing the single highest‑margin lane. That matters for network decentralization narratives that many miners and policymakers still watch.

What I’m watching next: - Order quality and margins: If backlog is anchored by scale buyers with clean site timelines, Canaan’s gross margin should hold as components and logistics normalize. Any tilt toward extended terms would show up quickly in cash flow even if revenue prints strong. - Treasury composition: The mix of cash, stablecoins, and BTC matters. A heavier BTC share adds upside convexity but also volatility to operating plans; a cash‑heavy stance favors R&D and supply‑chain commitments. - Supply‑chain resilience: Record shipments often strain after‑sales support. Treasury strength should translate into spare parts inventory, field engineering, and warranty reserves that keep customers online.

Revenue acceleration, peak shipments, and a record treasury don’t just read as growth—they read as optionality. If Canaan keeps translating North American demand into cash while pacing its technology roadmap, it strengthens its position for the next efficiency leap without overextending into the inevitable down‑cycle.