Analysts Trim Coinbase Targets as Bitcoin Slides; Pre-Screened Q&A Hints at Tighter Message Control

Coinbase’s equity has been trading on crypto’s beta all year—and the drawdown is forcing the Street to recalibrate. Into Thursday’s earnings, several banks cut price targets yet maintained positive ratings. The more important signal, though, is Coinbase’s move to require analysts to submit questions in advance for the call.

The tape - Shares slid about 8% on Wednesday to roughly $149, extending a year-to-date decline to 34% (Yahoo Finance). - Bitcoin fell 27% over the past month to around $66,853, with Ethereum, XRP, and other majors underperforming. BTC is now 47% below its peak above $126,000 set in October. - In October, Coinbase topped Q3 expectations, posting more than $1 billion in transaction revenue.

Street resets, still constructive - JPMorgan reduced its December 2026 target to $290 from $399 while reiterating an overweight. The drivers: softer crypto trading volumes, a meaningful Q4 drop in total crypto market cap, and declining USDC circulation. - The bank also flagged intensifying competition. Spot crypto trading remains fragmented, and as more exchanges list publicly, the perceived “regulated monopoly” benefit of being the only U.S.-listed exchange for roughly four years fades. If market share slips, JPMorgan argues, the equity likely underperforms. - Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $221 from $277 (overweight). Citi trimmed to $400 from $505 (buy). - Competitive backdrop: OKX and Kraken have signaled plans to pursue U.S. listings, while Gemini listed on Nasdaq in September at a $4.4 billion valuation.

The Q&A shift is the tell Argus’s Kevin Heale described the recent period as especially harsh and is watching for retail and leveraged traders to reengage. He also noted it’s the first time, among the companies he covers, that management has asked for analyst questions ahead of an earnings call. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the change.

On its face, advanced Q&A isn’t unusual—public companies often do it to improve response quality, manage time, and stick tightly to disclosure rules. In this tape, it reads as something else: Coinbase is tightening its information hygiene to avoid off-the-cuff remarks that could amplify volatility or introduce legal risk. That choice reflects a few realities:

- Precision matters now. With transaction revenue, USDC float economics, and derivatives/spot share under the microscope, wording can move the stock as much as the numbers. Pre-submission reduces headline risk and ensures Reg FD-compliant, well-calibrated commentary.

- Competitive narrative control. As OKX, Kraken, and others move toward the public markets, Coinbase loses the reflexive “premium for being the only public, regulated exchange.” Pre-vetted Q&A helps frame comparative advantages—custody trust, compliance footprint, and U.S. distribution—without ceding ground to rivals.

- Signaling stability to institutions. Many long-onlys and pensions engaging via spot Bitcoin ETFs and direct equities value predictability over spontaneity. A more curated call can reassure them amid crypto’s drawdowns.

There’s a trade-off. Markets sometimes read pre-screened exchanges as defensive. If management dodges pointed questions on volumes, take rates, USDC revenue share, or market-share shifts, the strategy can backfire. But if Coinbase uses the format to deliver cleaner disclosures—especially on how Q4 activity tracked alongside the 27% BTC monthly decline—it can reduce uncertainty premia.

What to watch Thursday after the close (Q4 2025) - Trailing trading volumes and mix; any update on take rates and derivatives traction. - USDC circulation trends and the contribution of stablecoin-related income. - Commentary on competitive dynamics and whether share in global spot/derivatives held or slipped.

Analysts stayed bullish but pragmatic. The cuts to $290 (JPMorgan), $221 (Cantor), and $400 (Citi) reflect models marked to lower crypto prices and thinner activity. The pre-submitted Q&A suggests Coinbase knows that, this quarter, words can matter almost as much as the print.