Crypto Turns Green, But Bitcoin and Ethereum Sit Under a Death Cross Regime

Markets are catching a bid, but the signal that matters hasn’t flipped. Bitcoin and Ethereum now trade beneath a death cross—where the 50-day moving average slips below the 200-day—marking a shift in risk regime rather than a single bearish headline. In crypto, that crossover often reshapes behavior: momentum systems sell strength, discretionary traders fade rallies, and liquidity thins at obvious levels. That feedback loop, more than the pattern itself, tends to drive outcomes.

Here’s the setup. The total crypto market capitalization is $3.08 trillion—about 1% lower than Sunday, but still defending the $3T line after last week’s skittish tape. Sentiment has improved: the Fear and Greed Index sits at 24 (Fear) after printing 10 in late November when BTC flirted with $80,000. Price is stabilizing, but the technical structure remains risk-off.

Macro won’t be a passenger. FedWatch implies nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut this Wednesday. Lower policy rates usually compress discount rates and support risk assets, but they don’t instantly unwind a negative trend regime. If the cut lands, you can get a relief bid; reclaiming trend still requires levels to break and hold.

Bitcoin: respect the trend until $105K - Spot: $90,170, down 0.26% on the day, up 6.4% over 7 days; intraday high $92,296; support seen at $89,618. - Structure: The death cross triggered on Nov. 16. The 50-day sits beneath the 200-day with price below the 50-day, keeping rallies contained by moving-average supply. - Ichimoku: Bearish profile in the near term. - ADX: 32.9—trend strength is real; the system doesn’t infer direction, but paired with the moving averages, that strength skews downside. - RSI: 44.26—neutral; not washed out enough to invite reflexive dip buying, not strong enough to invite momentum follow-through. - Squeeze Momentum: Bullish impulse within a compression zone—expect two-way chop as participants test a well-telegraphed resistance band. - Levels: - Resistance: $99,036 (near-term), $105,000 (key; 200-day EMA) - Support: $82,084 (near-term), $68,384 (major)

Ethereum: compression near $3K with conflicting signals - Spot: $3,112, up 1.7% in 24 hours; opened $3,060.6, high $3,180, low $3,041; roughly a 14% weekly rise. - Structure: Death cross in effect; short-term momentum trails the long-term trend. - ADX: 35.45—bearish trend has firmness. - RSI: 49.67—balanced, edging higher as sell pressure eases. - Squeeze Momentum: Bullish impulse suggests upward resolution is possible if resistance gives way. - Cloud: Price sits below the cloud with a bearish forward projection—trend traders remain skeptical until that flips. - Fibonacci and levels: - Resistance: $3,174 (0.5 retracement; being tested), $3,596 (0.382 and the region where the cross formed; heavier supply) - Support: $2,753 (near-term), $2,152 (major)

Why the cross matters more than usual - Technologically: Many execution algos gate risk on MA regimes. Under a death cross, systematic selling into strength and reduced bid depth can persist. - Psychologically: With the index at 24, fear remains elevated. Participants often sell early rips and wait for confirmation, slowing trend reversals. - Business-wise: Treasuries and funds tend to de-risk below the 200-day, tightening liquidity and dampening follow-through on green opens. - Ethically: Narratives swing quickly from “winter is coming” to “buy the cross.” Both extremes can mislead. The honest read is that the regime is cautious until BTC reclaims the 200-day EMA near $105,000 and ETH clears its cloud and $3,596.

Traders watching Wednesday’s Fed decision should expect volatility. A cut can spark a relief rally, but until the moving-average structure turns and those levels convert to support, this looks like a bear market bounce—tradable, not yet durable.