Crypto Prediction Markets Dismiss a Santa Rally as BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB Slip

Holiday narratives are seductive; market structure is unforgiving. On Myriad, the crowd has effectively priced out a “Santa rally” for crypto majors, and the way the contract is built explains why the skepticism is rational.

The market is rejecting the story—and the construction matters

Myriad’s seasonal market, open since December 8 and closing December 23 (volume: $21.2K), pays out only if at least three of four levels are hit by December 25: $99,000 for Bitcoin, $3,900 for Ethereum, $199 for Solana, and $999 for BNB. As of Thursday afternoon, 96% of predictors are against that outcome.

Two dynamics are doing the heavy lifting:

- Distance and time: Each threshold sits at least 13% above spot. With just days left, the window for multi-asset moves of that magnitude narrows quickly. - Correlated simultaneity: Requiring three of four assets to clear ambitious marks turns a feel-good December trope into a multi-factor event. You’re not betting on a single squeeze; you’re betting on synchronized upside across large caps in thin holiday order books.

The tape isn’t helping. Over the last 30 days, BTC and ETH have slipped 8.5% and 11.4%. SOL and BNB have fallen 16.2% and 11.8%. Against that backdrop, the probability of “no rally” has climbed about 12% over the past week as the calendar compresses. The contract closes two days before Christmas, further removing the last-minute headline lottery many traders quietly anchor to.

What I’m watching isn’t whether one coin spikes—it’s breadth. Seasonal momentum trades often need participation across majors to stick. When funding turns cautious and realized volatility bleeds, participants tend to sell optionality and fade narratives. Prediction markets amplify that behavior: as the clock runs down and distance-to-target remains wide, rational actors mark-to-model, not to holiday folklore.

Clemency odds for Keonne Rodriguez: Low despite new signals

A separate Myriad market asks whether President Trump will pardon Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez before February 2026. Opened December 16 (volume: $2.37K) and closing January 29, it shows 80% against a pardon as of Thursday.

Rodriguez was sentenced in November to five years in prison for building a Bitcoin mixer application. The debate sits at the intersection of code, intent, and accountability. Advocacy groups are backing him, and the President said this week he’d “look at” a pardon. Even so, traders are fading quick clemency—perhaps distinguishing his case from prior crypto-connected pardons for Ross Ulbricht and Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, and he’s voiced his own skepticism: “We don’t have billions of dollars. We don’t have the same type of influence people like that have.”

This market reflects how participants handicap institutional incentives and public optics more than legal nuance. The closer we get to late January without formal movement, the more inertia tends to win.

Betting on Hawkins: Steve Harrington’s survival gains traction

Entertainment markets on Myriad are moving the other way. The “Will Steve Harrington Die in Stranger Things Season 5?” contract (opened November 11, closing December 25; volume: $22.4K) gives only a 17% chance of his death as of Thursday afternoon—down about 14 percentage points from last week.

The first four episodes may have reassured traders, even as theories proliferate and the Duffer Brothers stoked speculation on The Tonight Show by knocking a Steve figurine off a desk. Importantly, resolution requires clear on-screen evidence of death; disappearances or off-screen fates resolve “no.” With the next batch of episodes arriving December 25 and the feature-length series finale dropping on New Year’s Eve, the market’s pricing nods to both narrative momentum and strict resolution rules.

The throughline

Across all three markets, compressed timelines and explicit conditions shape expectations more than vibes. For the Santa rally in particular, the bar isn’t just high—it’s coordinated. In year-end liquidity, that’s a tall ask.