DAT Stocks Near mNAV Floors as Bitcoin Softens: Capitulation or Setup?

Digital Asset Treasury stocks have sold off far harder than Bitcoin, with several now priced roughly in line with their coin stashes. That shift matters less for optics and more for funding. When market-net-asset-value (mNAV) compresses toward or below one, the equity-as-fuel model that powered treasury accumulation starts to misfire.

The tape is stark. Bitcoin is roughly 20% below its 2025 high, yet DAT names have slid much faster: Strategy has dropped about 50% from its July peak, while Metaplanet and SharpLink are down roughly 80% and 90%, respectively. StrategyTracker shows mNAVs pushing close to, or dipping under, parity. At those levels, issuing new shares to buy more crypto becomes uneconomic, and management teams face tougher choices. As CEX.IO’s Yaroslav Patsira put it, once a DAT trades beneath the value of its holdings, the market is signaling that mere accumulation is no longer enough; with operating costs to cover, some may feel pressure to lighten their stacks.

Here’s the crux: the mNAV trap is a financing problem before it’s a narrative problem. Equity-funded balance sheet strategies are reflexive—high share prices enable more purchases, which can lift sentiment and, in bull phases, price. Near-parity mNAV breaks that loop. The companies most likely to navigate this are the ones with simple, Bitcoin-only mandates and clean balance sheets. Gomining Institutional’s Fakhul Miah noted that single-asset treasuries appear more “oversold” than “done,” while multi-asset DATs that chased higher-risk tokens carry greater path dependency if liquidity stays tight. That rings true. DATs are high-beta vehicles by design; when digital assets cool, these stocks typically drop harder.

Even so, the longer frame is not uniformly bearish. Year to date, Galaxy Digital is up 73.4% and SharpLink is higher by 43.2%, both outpacing Bitcoin’s 8.6% gain. That dispersion looks like a sharp, mid-cycle drawdown, not a structural end. Strategy remains the purest Bitcoin proxy with 641,692 BTC, a long record of not selling, and more than $18 billion in unrealized gains. It’s down about 25% year to date—painful, but comparatively resilient. On prediction market Myriad, users assign less than a 7% probability that Strategy sells any BTC before year-end, reinforcing the market’s expectation that the company will stick to its playbook.

Macro is the near-term fulcrum. The end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown brings back delayed data. If inflation cools and the Federal Reserve leans more clearly toward December rate cuts, crypto’s funding and risk appetite could improve. Myriad participants now put the probability of Bitcoin reaching $115,000 at 61%, up from 53.4% earlier today. If Bitcoin reasserts momentum, Patsira expects DATs to follow with outsized beta.

My read focuses on capital discipline. At mNAV ≈ 1, boards must pivot from “accumulate at any price” toward “protect the equity.” That means slowing or pausing ATM issuance, exploring cheaper capital (convertible notes with credible covenants), and improving disclosure around issuance cadence and liquidity runway. For investors, selection is the edge: favor Bitcoin-only treasuries with transparent issuance policies and ample cash buffers; be cautious on multi-asset DATs with fragmented risk and weaker financing options until liquidity broadens and risk premia compress.

What to watch from here: - mNAV discounts narrowing without aggressive issuance - Evidence of issuance pauses or buyback signals from stronger balance sheets - U.S. CPI, labor data, and December Fed guidance - Bitcoin trend stability; a clean reclaim typically re-rates high-beta proxies first

If rates ease and Bitcoin stabilizes, the recovery in DATs can be swift. But the indiscriminate premium for “more coins on the balance sheet” is fading. In this phase, financing quality and focus matter more than headline BTC counts.