Eric Trump’s American Bitcoin Stabilizes After Initial Unlock as Market Tests Supply Overhang

American Bitcoin’s first significant unlock window hit the tape, and the reaction said more about equity flows than mining fundamentals. After sliding to $1.75 on Tuesday, the stock rebounded Wednesday to roughly $2.33—still 35% below Monday’s $3.60 close, but no longer in freefall.

The catalyst was straightforward: June private-placement participants were able to take profits for the first time. Co-founder Eric Trump said he’s holding his ABTC shares, but management also flagged that additional tranches will become freely tradable soon, with President Matt Prusak describing this week as the first large unlock of pre-merger stock. Expect more supply to hit.

Here’s the backdrop that matters for valuation:

- June private placement: 159 million shares sold for $220 million, with the option to exchange Bitcoin for equity. At current prices, that block would be worth about $397 million. - Operations: In Q3, the company produced Bitcoin at roughly $50,000 per coin and continued building its treasury. - Balance sheet: 4,004 BTC on hand, worth about $370 million. - Financials: Q3 revenue came in at $64 million, up from $11.6 million a year ago; the firm reported $3.5 million in profit versus a $576 million loss last year.

The key dynamic to watch is the tug-of-war between a growing on-balance-sheet Bitcoin stack and the short-term realities of unlock-driven supply. Public miners often trade as levered Bitcoin proxies with an embedded premium to treasury value; unlocks test that premium by forcing a price discovery process as early holders rotate. That rotation is rarely about hash rate or energy efficiency in the moment—it’s about inventory overhang, entry price anchoring, and available liquidity.

American Bitcoin’s management is leaning into that gap, arguing the equity is not reflecting operational muscle—computational power and power consumption metrics—nor the company’s improved P&L. That may prove right over a longer horizon, but near term the flow-of-funds problem is real. We’ve seen similar compressions this year in other crypto-adjacent equities trading well above their net crypto exposure; SharpLink Gaming and Upexi both slipped and remained at relatively lower levels after their own unlock/flow events.

For ABTC, structure matters. The company emerged when Eric and Donald Trump Jr. combined their venture with Miami-based Bitcoin miner Hut8, and it signaled a path to the public market via a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining in May. That merger-driven cap table, paired with a sizeable private placement that included BTC-for-shares contributions, creates a shareholder base with heterogeneous cost bases and motivations. Some participants will prioritize treasury growth and operating leverage into the next Bitcoin cycle; others will simply harvest gains when windows open.

What would shift the narrative? Transparent unlock calendars, consistent treasury management (e.g., disciplined HODL vs. selective monetization), and evidence that cost-to-mine trends remain around $50,000 per coin or improve. If those fundamentals hold while supply overhang clears, the market often re-rates back toward a blend of BTC NAV and cash-flow expectations.

Until then, price action is likely to be driven less by exahash and more by who owns the float on any given day. That is the nature of unlock season—mechanical, messy, and, for patient capital, occasionally attractive.