MARA Stock Jumps as Bitcoin Miner Pivots Toward AI Data Centers With Starwood—Leases Will Decide the Rerate

MARA is trying to convert its edge—cheap, contracted power and grid access—into a new revenue engine. The Bitcoin miner said it will partner with Starwood Property Trust to redevelop a portfolio of U.S. facilities into hyperscale data center campuses geared for enterprise and AI workloads. The market noticed: MARA closed Thursday at $8.45, down 1.4% on the day, then climbed to $9.62 after-hours (+13.9%), touching $9.90 at the session’s peak—about 16% above the regular close, per Google Finance.

The plan is intentionally modular. Projects will be structured site by site, excluding locations tied up in third‑party joint ventures. Target campuses have low-cost power and strong interconnection, and the design would allow capacity to swing between Bitcoin mining and AI compute based on relative economics. As framed by CEO Fred Thiel, dependable energy access is meant to translate into dependable IT capacity. Governance mirrors that ambition: MARA can hold 10%–50% equity in each joint venture, while Starwood serves as managing member and leads development, tenant sourcing, and financing.

Investors are treating this as optionality, not a full pivot. Ram Kumar of OpenLedger said the move nudges MARA away from pure hashrate and Bitcoin price beta toward “power-to-compute” monetization—but without disclosed, binding leases, traders are likely to price the name as a Bitcoin proxy. Data center conversions are execution-heavy and timeline-sensitive. Siwon Huh of Four Pillars added that the strategy could reshape long-run earnings if AI capex persists, yet near-term impact appears limited because MARA has not announced AI tenants. Unlike Core Scientific, which secured AI contracts last year, or TeraWulf, which signed long-duration hosting deals, MARA remains at the partnership stage. A hyperscale, long-term lease would be the decisive catalyst. Both analysts also flagged two gating items: GPU procurement and a clear policy for power allocation between mining and AI.

The crux here is lease execution. Power and interconnection are valuable, but they do not monetize themselves. Hyperscale tenants care about delivery risk, PUE targets, creditworthy financing, and predictable timelines. Without firm contracts—and economics that justify redevelopment capex—equity won’t fully credit the shift. MARA’s 10%–50% JV election gives flexibility on capital intensity and return profile, though it also introduces dispersion in outcomes across sites.

There’s another layer: opportunity cost. Diverting megawatts from mining to AI compute can boost revenue density, but it exposes the business to GPU supply chains, longer sales cycles, and new operational requirements. When hashprice improves, miners often prefer to push electrons back into hashrate; when AI lease rates tighten, the reverse is tempting. Managing that toggle requires transparent guardrails. Investors will want:

- Signed hyperscale or enterprise leases with disclosed term, $/kW-month, step-ups, and tenant credit quality - A procurement path for GPUs/accelerators and network fabric - Site-level capex per MW, timeline, and projected PUE - A policy for dynamic power distribution between mining and AI compute

Until those show up, the stock’s beta to Bitcoin likely dominates. If MARA lands a binding, multi-year lease and demonstrates credible power-to-capacity conversion at scale, the market can begin to value the interconnection and power book as a compute platform, not just as hashrate fuel.