Prediction Markets Swing Back to $100K Bitcoin as Fed Cut Odds Rise; UpOnly and Revolut Bets Shift

Crypto’s mood brightened post-Thanksgiving. Bitcoin added 7.4% over the past week to reclaim $91,000, yet it remains roughly 28% below its August peak. Prediction markets on Myriad have pivoted with that uptick, increasingly favoring a rally to six figures before any deeper retrace.

Bitcoin’s Path: $100K Before $69K - Market details: Opened Nov 5; volume $19.9K; open until resolution. - Current pricing: About a 74% chance Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before it dumps to $69,000 as of Friday morning—roughly a 24 percentage-point swing toward the “pump” camp since launch. - Market context: BTC briefly slipped below $82,000 after a slide and liquidations; a 10% weekly rebound followed. It now needs just 9.8% to tag $100,000, while bears require a >24% drawdown to win the $69,000 leg.

Why this matters: After October 10’s record ~$19 billion in liquidations, markets often underestimate how quickly forced-seller overhang can clear. Once deleveraging exhausts, spot can grind higher on thinner asks, especially if macro winds shift. Analysts citing “waning institutional interest” and Fed-policy uncertainty were not wrong during the drawdown; they were early in assuming it persists.

What I’m watching is path dependence: the near-term “distance” to $100K is materially tighter than the hike down to $69K. When the upside target is closer, reflexive flows—dealers’ hedging, basis normalization, and short-covering—tend to compound. Add an improving rate backdrop and you get probabilistic skew, not bravado.

Macro catalyst in view: Myriad predictors peg the December 9-10 FOMC meeting with roughly an 84% probability of a rate cut. That shift, if delivered, can reprice duration risk and risk appetite in one stroke. It will not manufacture sustainable demand by itself, but it can ease financial conditions enough for crypto beta to extend.

Voices on the tape: - Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, argues the market has been resetting post-liquidation and could still print a new high before year-end. - MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor remains assertive, saying last month that $150,000 is still in play before January.

Net, I don’t see euphoria in the 74% reading; I see a market assigning higher odds to the path of least resistance. If a cut arrives, volatility bleeds can shift into momentum buying faster than skeptics expect—until spot meets real supply.

Will Brian Armstrong Open UpOnly’s Return? - Market details: Opened Nov 25; open until resolution; volume $702. - Setup: Coinbase agreed to buy Echo—a crypto fundraising platform founded by Jordan “Cobie” Fish—for roughly $400 million. The deal included a $25 million purchase of the UpOnly NFT, which grants rights to another season of the Cobie/LedgerStatus show. Hosts control the guest list, though they may take suggestions. - Odds: Nearly 60% “no” that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong appears on Episode 1 as of Friday morning. - Signal: Fish said the show starts once eight guests are locked; his early wish list did not include Armstrong. Given the creative control clause and optics around a new corporate relationship, predictors are discounting a headline guest on day one. No timetable has been announced.

Will Revolut Announce Its Own Stablecoin by Year-End? - Market details: Opened Jul 4; closes Dec 31; volume $27.8K. - Setup: Revolut has leaned into crypto—integrating Polygon for stablecoin payments and remittances, securing a MiCA license via Cyprus, and raising at roughly a $75 billion valuation. It has offered crypto trading since 2017 and was rumored this summer to be exploring its own stablecoin. - Odds evolution: Briefly favored “yes” in July; mostly averaged ~75% “no” through the summer. Early October spiked to a coin flip—around the time Revolut gained approval to establish a bank in Colombia—then slid back. Despite the MiCA win, odds fell another 4% this week to 86% “no.” - Read: MiCA introduces structured guardrails for fiat-backed tokens, but launching a compliant stablecoin also demands treasury, liquidity, and governance rigor that firms often stage over multiple cycles. An EU crypto lawyer called a Revolut stablecoin by 2026 “plausible.” As the 2025 clock runs down, predictors are essentially saying “not yet.” This market stops taking bets four hours before year-end.

A note on venue: Myriad Markets is a product of Dastan.

If the Fed cut materializes, the market’s asymmetry—10% up to $100K versus >24% down to $69K—explains why predictors skew bullish without signaling complacency. In that setup, even modest incremental demand can tip Bitcoin through round-number resistance, while deeper downside likely requires a fresh shock, not just inertia.