Standard Chartered Charts a Deeper Dip: Bitcoin to $50K and Ethereum to $1.4K Before 2026 Recovery

Crypto’s path rarely runs straight. Standard Chartered expects another leg lower before the next advance, mapping Bitcoin toward $50,000 and Ethereum toward $1,400 in the coming months—followed by a climb to $100,000 and $4,000, respectively, by the end of 2026. The bank keeps its long-run optimism intact while acknowledging a tougher near-term path.

The hinge point here isn’t hype; it’s ETFs and who holds them. Spot ETF assets ballooned, then bled back in an orderly unwind: - Bitcoin ETF AUM peaked above $165 billion in early October and now sits near $96 billion—a 41% slide (CoinGlass). - Ethereum ETF AUM topped out around $23 billion in August 2025 and has fallen 43% to roughly $13 billion. - The average Bitcoin ETF position is about 25% below cost, a psychological overhang for new participants.

Prices reflect that reset. Bitcoin trades around $67,456, up nearly 2% on the day, but down 27% over 30 days and 46% below its October all-time high above $126,000 (CoinGecko). Ethereum changes hands near $1,969, up 2.8% daily, yet still 4% lower than a week ago. On prediction market Myriad, traders assign a 58% probability that BTC touches $55,000 before it reaches $84,000—consistent with a market leaning into further downside first.

Standard Chartered’s framework drills into two drawdown gauges: how far prices have retraced from the highs and the share of BTC supply still in profit. Both metrics have deteriorated, but not to the extremes seen in prior cycles. The bank argues that institutional involvement and ETF vehicles blunt the left tail—selling may persist, but forced, disorderly liquidation risk looks less acute than in earlier eras.

This is where the ETF factor matters most: - Behaviorally, an average ETF holder sitting ~25% underwater often becomes a “volatility seller”—lightening exposure into strength, reinforcing resistance levels on the way up. That can elongate recovery timelines even when the structural thesis holds. - From a business perspective, allocators with mandates, rebalancing rules, and risk budgets tend to scale in and out systematically. That can distribute sell pressure across time rather than detonating it in one burst, keeping tape action heavy but more controlled. - Technologically, on-chain profitability metrics can now be mapped to the ETF cohort, sharpening where realized cost bases cluster. Those bands often act as supply walls until conviction and flows break through. - Ethically, banks setting explicit price paths take on a signaling role. Calibrated expectations—acknowledging drawdowns while articulating long-term targets—can help reduce impulsive behavior without overpromising.

Despite trimming near-term expectations, Standard Chartered leaves its long-dated targets unchanged: by end-2030, Bitcoin at $500,000, Ethereum at $40,000, and Solana at $2,000. The bank’s 2026 milestones—$100,000 BTC and $4,000 ETH—sit on a glide path that assumes further clearing of weak hands now, then constructive flows as macro, policy, and product-market maturation reassert themselves.

This setup isn’t a call for heroics; it’s a recognition that the market’s plumbing has evolved. ETF redemptions and creations, institutional rebalancing, and a thicker derivatives stack can compress the amplitude of crashes while stretching the duration of recoveries. If that dynamic holds, dips toward $50,000 for BTC and $1,400 for ETH would mark progression, not capitulation—stairs down before the next flight up.