Strategy Buys 1,142 BTC With New Equity as $49.6B Treasury Falls Below Cost

Strategy is leaning harder into its playbook: issue stock, buy Bitcoin, ride the convexity. The company disclosed another $90 million purchase last week—1,142 BTC at an average of $78,815—funded by selling $89.5 million of Class A common shares and issuing no preferred. With Bitcoin sliding, that lot is already marked lower at roughly $79.3 million based on recent pricing.

The numbers around the core position are now large enough to shape market psychology. Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—holds 714,644 BTC, or about 3.4% of the fully diluted supply. At a spot price near $69,193, the hoard is valued around $49.6 billion. The firm’s blended cost sits at $76,056 per coin, implying an unrealized loss of roughly $4.8 billion after last week’s drawdown.

Here’s the tension I care about: the equity-as-a-Bitcoin-call-option model works brilliantly in bull regimes because rising BTC inflates both the asset base and the stock’s capacity to finance more buys. In drawdowns, that reflexivity runs in reverse. Dilution increases, the marginal BTC acquired is above spot (as with the $78,815 prints), and the balance-sheet volatility feeds through to reported results. Strategy just posted a $12.4 billion loss for Q4 2025 as prices bled off from the October peak above $126,000. That headline forces some shareholders to reassess risk tolerance even if they understand the non-cash mechanics.

Management is signaling persistence. Leadership framed the program as a durable, long-horizon strategy backed by more than 713,000 BTC and a pivot toward “digital credit.” The choice to stick with common equity rather than preferred in the latest raise keeps financial flexibility high but increases exposure to sentiment around the stock itself. MSTR was down about 1.25% on the day to just above $133, bounced from an 18‑month low near $104 last week as BTC briefly dipped toward $60,000, and recovered alongside crypto into Friday. That price path shows how tightly the equity tracks spot—and how quickly the financing window can narrow.

If you model this as treasury management instead of a trading book, the “underwater” label is more about optics than solvency; the firm can continue to average in so long as markets will buy its equity. The deeper question is concentration and optionality. Controlling 3.4% of eventual supply makes Strategy a structural node in Bitcoin’s ownership graph. Some investors view that as a stabilizer; others see single-issuer risk. A prediction market on Myriad (run by Dastan) currently assigns roughly a 28% chance that the company trims holdings before year-end—a small but notable probability that acknowledges financing and volatility risks without assuming capitulation.

Bitcoin is down more than 23% over 30 days, off lows but well below October’s high. Strategy’s latest buy is consistent with its rule set: add exposure into weakness, increase BTC-per-share, and trust the cycle. That approach can work over long arcs, but it demands continual market access and shareholder patience when the arithmetic turns against the cost basis—exactly where we are today.