Bitcoin Slide Puts Strategy’s mNAV Premium in the Hot Seat as Markets Price In Possible BTC Sales

Markets are fixating on whether Strategy will sell Bitcoin, but the real hinge is its multiple to net asset value. That premium is the firm’s capital valve: when it’s open, they can issue stock and keep accumulating; when it closes, the buy program slows. With sentiment souring and price momentum against BTC, the mNAV premium—not the headline volatility—likely dictates Strategy’s next move.

Here’s the setup. Users on Myriad, the prediction market owned by DASTAN, now assign a 36% probability that Strategy sells some BTC before year-end, up from 22% at the week’s start. Bitcoin has slipped below key levels to $76,039—roughly aligned with Strategy’s average entry—down 2.9% over 24 hours, 15.4% over the week, and 18.1% over the month, per CoinGecko. From October’s $126,080 peak, BTC is off about 40%, and Myriad participants see a greater than 72% chance of $69,000 before a run to $100,000.

The mNAV sits near 1.08. Above 1, the stock trades at a premium to underlying BTC, enabling at-the-market issuance to fund new buys. If it slips below 1, that channel can narrow or pause. Myriad traders place a near-90% probability on the mNAV compressing toward 0.85 rather than expanding to 1.5—a stance little changed over the past month. Layer on eight consecutive months of equity losses—MSTR down over 75% from its November 2024 high of $540 to around $133—and the premium faces understandable pressure.

This is where reflexivity bites. As the stock premium thins, issuance becomes less attractive; less issuance reduces incremental BTC demand; weaker demand can weigh on the premium again. It’s a feedback loop that often tests conviction-driven strategies. The question is whether Strategy is forced to break the loop or can simply wait it out.

Analysts aren’t seeing forced sellers. One well-followed crypto researcher argued the recent drawdown doesn’t materially change the company’s posture, noting that management has planned for downturns and the first convertible bond tranche isn’t due until early next year. Another analyst pointed out that with Bitcoin trading roughly in line with Strategy’s average cost basis, fresh issuance could be dilutive in the near term—so a pause in buying would be rational. Even so, the firm added 855 BTC on February 2, and Michael Saylor reiterated his stance with a simple message: buy BTC and don’t sell it.

Selling would more likely be about liquidity management than belief. Strategy holds 713,502 BTC, worth over $52 billion at current prices, and maintains a $2.25 billion cash reserve—enough to fund roughly 30 months of preferred dividend payments, according to its website. That cushion suggests flexibility. If the firm trims, it would plausibly be to optimize capital or match obligations rather than signaling a thesis reversal.

From a market-structure lens, the crowd is hedging the premium risk, not betting on capitulation. If mNAV dips below 1, incremental buying could slow; if the premium rebuilds, the acquisition engine restarts. Prediction markets marking a 36% chance of sales and pricing a deep mNAV compression reflect that toggle. They’re also reacting to BTC path dependency: with odds skewed toward $69,000 before $100,000, the easier near-term path is downside drift that pressures the premium.

What to watch: - The mNAV line at 1.0. That’s the funding hinge. - BTC’s trajectory relative to Strategy’s average entry; parity invites dilution concerns. - Equity sentiment. Sustained discount-to-NAV could self-limit purchases. - Cash and liability timing: preferred dividends and the convertibles schedule.

As one DeFi founder put it, the long-term accumulation play likely remains intact; any sale would be about pricing and allocation, not conviction. That aligns with how these programs usually operate: keep buying when the premium allows, pause when it doesn’t, and only sell if the risk-reward or obligations demand it. The market is testing the premium, not the belief system.