TD Cowen Trims Strategy’s Bitcoin Target to $350, Initiates Sharplink at Buy With $16 Goal

TD Cowen is leaning into yield while dialing back pure beta. The bank’s analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, initiated coverage on Ethereum-focused Sharplink with a Buy and a $16 price target, while cutting their price objective on Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy to $350 but reiterating a Buy. Shares reflected the divergence: Sharplink traded around $6.42 after-hours, down 62% over six months, whereas Strategy hovered near $129.

Here’s the signal in the noise: staking economics versus wrapper drag. Sharplink isn’t modeled as a passive crypto accumulator. It runs as an operator that grows its Ethereum stack via staking, a structure that can compound holdings per share over time. TD Cowen argues Sharplink’s direct staking should deliver a superior net yield compared to U.S. Ethereum ETFs that have added staking, given those funds’ management fees and the liquidity constraints many asset managers face when staking through an ETF wrapper. If ETH appreciates, that per-share ETH accretion can create operating leverage versus ETF holders who pay fees for similar exposure. If ETH stagnates, TD believes the staking flow is still meaningful enough to fully cover operating costs.

Recent numbers back the thesis for now. Sharplink’s staking revenue climbed 50% quarter-over-quarter to $15.3 million from $10.3 million, and the company reported earning 14,500 ETH from staking—valued at $9.4 million at the time. The firm also posted a full-year loss of $734 million, driven by a decline in the value of its ETH holdings in the back half of the year. That marks the core trade-off: mark-to-market volatility on treasury assets versus a recurring reward stream that can smooth cash needs. With Chairman Joe Lubin positioning Sharplink as a bridge between public markets and Ethereum, the company is deliberately taking on operational responsibility—validator performance, risk management, custody, and governance—in exchange for yield that ETF buyers outsource and pay away.

This model tends to appeal to investors who prefer tangible cash flows over pure exposure. It can also introduce behavioral advantages: management teams with recurring on-chain income often make more measured treasury decisions than those relying solely on external capital or price appreciation. Still, execution risk is real. Validator downtime, slashing incidents, or poor hedging around ETH drawdowns could erode the very edge TD Cowen highlights. The prize is durable: consistent validator returns, compounding per-share ETH, and the potential to outperform fee-laden wrappers in up markets without being forced sellers in down markets.

Contrast that with Strategy, the archetypal Bitcoin balance-sheet vehicle holding over $55 billion in BTC. TD Cowen’s new $350 target—reduced earlier this year from $550 to $440, and now again—reflects a lower multiple on the company’s key KPI, “BTC $ gain” (the dollar value added to its Bitcoin via acquisitions), alongside tempered assumptions for future Bitcoin prices. The rating stays Buy because many still view Strategy as a high-beta instrument to BTC cycles with governance aligned to accumulate coins over time. But the valuation framework is increasingly sensitive to two variables outside management’s direct control: spot BTC trajectory and the pace/price of new acquisitions.

What to watch next: - Sharplink: net staking yield after operating costs, validator reliability, ETH-per-share growth versus ETF benchmarks, and whether staking revenue remains sufficient in flat or down ETH regimes. - Strategy: cadence of BTC purchases relative to capital inflows, any changes to the “BTC $ gain” playbook, and how equity premium tracks shifts in long-term BTC price expectations.

In a market where access products are proliferating, TD Cowen’s calls draw a simple line: operational yield can justify equity even in choppy pricing, while pure treasury beta warrants closer scrutiny of assumptions as the cycle matures.