U.S. Bid Reappears: $506M Hits Spot Bitcoin ETFs as Coinbase Premium Turns Positive

Bitcoin’s advance is finally meeting real U.S. demand again. After weeks of supply dominating, two metrics that matter for the institutional bid—spot ETF creations and the Coinbase premium—both turned in Bitcoin’s favor, and price followed.

- Price and macro context Bitcoin rose 4.4% in the past 24 hours to roughly $68,300, per CoinGecko, while the broader crypto market added 4.4% to $2.43 trillion. Wednesday’s AI-fueled equity squeeze helped: NVIDIA reported $68.1 billion in quarterly revenue, up 73% year-over-year, clearing estimates across major lines. That wealth effect often bleeds into crypto risk.

- The signal that counts: who’s buying U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $506 million on Wednesday—the strongest day since February 2’s $561 million, according to SoSoValue. That is the kind of non-hedged, cash-driven flow that changes net supply/demand. CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno noted that spot demand is growing for the first time since late November—an important shift after a soft winter.

At the same time, the Coinbase premium index—a gauge of the price gap between Coinbase and Binance often used as a proxy for U.S. institutional appetite—has crawled out of deeply negative territory from around February 12 and sits near +0.05 this week. It is also the first sustained positive read since mid-January. When the premium turns green, the U.S. desk is usually paying up instead of leaning on the offer, a behavior change that tends to reduce intraday sell pressure.

- Quality of bid vs. quiet trading Not every datapoint is bullish. The reduction in pressure coincides with a sharp drop in speculative activity. Since early February 2026, futures volume is down about 44%, and spot volume is off roughly 50% from recent highs, per Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO. When leverage resets and turnover cools, forced selling naturally fades—so cleaner order books can look like “buying” even if genuine demand has only stabilized.

That is why I weight the ETF creations and the Coinbase premium more heavily than raw volume. Creations are fresh dollars; a positive Coinbase premium suggests those dollars are U.S.-led rather than purely offshore basis trades. Still, one strong inflow day does not make a trend. A healthier confirmation would be several consecutive sessions of net creations across multiple issuers and a premium that persists during drawdowns, not just on green days.

- Positioning and psychology On-chain outflows have fallen about 25% alongside the apparent pickup in spot demand since late November, according to Lacie Zhang at Bitget Wallet. That combination often tempts allocators who have been underweight to start scaling in, as the risk/reward improves when supply is less aggressive and the U.S. bid is visible. Yet Otychenko’s caution is warranted: the market structure remains fragile, and without improving macro conditions, these developments can stall before a full trend change.

- How I’m reading it The ETF and premium shift say the marginal U.S. buyer is returning; the volume reset says speculators stepped back. Those can coexist. If NVDA’s beat anchors the “AI wealth effect,” RIAs and funds may trickle back through the ETF pipes. But until we see sustained creations and a stickier premium, this looks like constructive stabilization, not a confirmed bottom.

Prediction markets are nudging more optimistic: on Myriad, participants now assign a 46% probability that Bitcoin’s next leg takes it to $84,000, up from 31% a day earlier. That aligns with the improved tape but still reflects two-way risk.

In short, the quality of demand just improved. Whether it endures will be decided by follow-through in ETF creations and a Coinbase premium that stays positive when the market is tested.