Whale-Controlled Inflows Persist as Bitcoin Sell Pressure Eases, CryptoQuant Data Shows

Bitcoin’s immediate sell pressure looks lighter, but a different risk has emerged: concentration. Exchange inflows have fallen from early-February extremes, yet whales now dominate the flow mix to a degree not seen in a decade—a setup that often caps reflexive rallies and rewards patience over bravado.

Key datapoints worth anchoring to: - Daily Bitcoin deposits to exchanges hit ~60,000 BTC on February 6 as spot slid toward $60,000, then eased to ~23,000 BTC on a 7-day average. - The Exchange Whale Ratio has climbed to 0.64—its highest since 2015—meaning the top 10 depositors accounted for 64% of all inflows. - Bitcoin is down 46% from its October all-time high of $126,080, recently trading around $67,582. - Prior analysis flags an “ultimate bear market bottom” near $55,000 alongside shrinking stablecoin “dry powder” (notably USDT) on exchanges. - Prediction market Myriad currently assigns a 57% probability that BTC tags $55,000 before rebounding to $84,000.

The important dynamic isn’t simply that flows have moderated; it’s that the remaining sell-side firepower is concentrated in a handful of large actors. When whales dominate exchange deposits, price discovery tends to revolve around their execution cadence, inventory needs, and risk practices. That can produce two effects at once: fewer disorderly air pockets (because fewer participants are panic-selling), but more persistent overhead—since large clips lean on liquidity and repeatedly refill asks when bids regroup.

This pattern aligns with last year’s “great redistribution,” when an unusually large number of coins migrated from long-term holders to new owners in waves. The current 0.64 ratio suggests those distribution waves haven’t fully subsided. If anything, the baton is still mid-pass: overall inflows are down, but the marginal seller remains sophisticated and patient.

There’s also a structural liquidity angle. With stablecoin balances on exchanges thinning, the market’s immediate bid depth is less resilient. Rallies often accelerate when stablecoin deposits rise; today, that fuel looks limited. Pair a concentrated sell supply with constrained spot buying power, and you get an environment where bounces can flicker but struggle to sustain without a catalyst—macro relief, renewed ETF inflows, or a step-up in stablecoin issuance and deposits.

A few trading implications follow:

- Respect the whale overhang. Spot squeezes can occur, but repeated replenishment at key resistance is common when a small cohort controls supply. - Watch quality of flow, not just quantity. A 23,000 BTC 7-day average doesn’t tell you intent; a 0.64 whale ratio tells you who sets the tone. - Liquidity timing matters. Whales often execute into predictable liquidity windows; failed breakouts near those windows are informative. - Monitor stablecoin inflows. A turn higher in exchange-based USDT deposits would signal the bid side rebuilding—often a precondition for trend change.

Could $55,000 print? It’s plausible if concentrated sellers continue to lean and dry powder remains thin. It wouldn’t require capitulation—just time, grind, and systematic supply. Conversely, any re-acceleration in stablecoin inflows or a clear shift in the whale ratio back toward a more distributed profile would reduce the downside tail.

In short, the market has moved from “everyone selling” to “the few who matter selling.” That’s less chaotic, but it isn’t yet bullish.